U.S. stock index futures fell ‌on Tuesday as investors assessed the fallout of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and the repercussions it could have ​on inflation and global trade.

Tehran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz and said it would fire on any ship trying ​to pass, ​pushing up global crude prices and shipping rates. The strait handles about a fifth of the world's total oil consumption.

Industries exposed to crude prices such as airlines and travel were knocked back ⁠for a second day. Delta and Royal Caribbean fell about 3% each.

"Much will depend on the price of oil," said a group of strategists led by Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid. "Any sustained spike would undoubtedly trigger a more meaningful risk-off move."

Investors worried that higher oil prices could stoke inflation across the broader economy and ​further complicate policy decisions ‌for central bank ⁠officials already contending with price ⁠increases driven by tariffs.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest level in more than a week and ​investors pushed back expectations for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal ‌Reserve to September, according to LSEG-compiled data.

Markets will be looking ⁠out for fresh signals from the Fed, given recent divisions over the path of rates. John Williams, a voting member, Jeffrey Schmid, and Neel Kashkari are scheduled to speak later in the day.

A packed slate of U.S. data will land later this week, including January retail sales, ADP employment figures and the closely watched non-farm payrolls report.

At 04:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 707 points, or 1.45%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 106 points, or 1.54%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 511 points, or 2%.

Futures tracking the small-caps index slid 2.3%, while Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE volatility index , spiked ‌to a fresh three-month high of 25.56 points.

Oil and gas and ⁠defense stocks were among the few gainers. Occidental rose 3% and ​Cheniere Energy climbed 8%, while U.S.-listed shares of Scorpio Tankers added 2.2%. Lockheed Martin gained 1.4%, while RTX added 1%.

AI bellwethers Nvidia and Microsoft were down too.

U.S. investors are also navigating uncertainties about the scope of disruption AI models could ​have on traditional businesses, ‌alongside jitters in the private credit space.

MongoDB shares plunged 27% after ⁠the database software company forecast quarterly profit below ​Street estimates.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)