In 106 days of continuous siege, Nahr Al-Bared refugee camp was destroyed beyond repair and 222 militants killed, 202 arrested while the Lebanese army suffered 163 martyrs with at least 2,000 soldiers injured.
The only ones who are impressed by this achievement are those who respect and value the concept of a national army yet truly believed that the Lebanese army is totally useless and would not prevail against the thugs.
Some argued that going against the militants in Nahr Al- Bared, despite the fact that the group is not supported by the residents of the Palestinian refugee camps or by any Palestinian faction for that matter, would plunge the army into a quagmire for a long period of time, similar to what the US military experiences in Iraq today.The army prevailed and "only" an estimated 10 militants managed to escape the siege. The truth is that this victory calls for thumbs up if only for the fact that hadn't the army eventually won the showdown it would have been a catastrophe for Lebanon. It also highlights how weak the Lebanese military is today and just like Nahr Al-Bared cannot be repaired but needs to be rebuilt, so is the army.
This contradicts the call of some, including President Emile Lahoud, to use the army as a solution to the political stalemate in Lebanon. The calls that range from having the chief of the armed forces form a "unity government" to having him playing president are ridiculous on several counts, foremost of which, is that he needs to be fully engaged in building a true army in his country instead of playing politics. Another is obvious too: handing over the political leadership of the country to the military is contrary to the aspirations of the vast majority of Lebanese for a true democracy.
There are other important lessons learned.
The army declared proof that Fateh Al-Islam assassinated Minister Pierre Gamayel and was planning to assassinate the Maronite Patriarch Sfeir. Whereas several politicians had said or hinted that Fatah Al-Islam is nothing but Fatah Al-Intifada that dwells under the umbrella of Syria, the declaration by Army Intelligence Chief George Khoury Monday that it is now proven through confessions as well as solid intelligence that the group is linked to Al-Qaeda, exonerates Syria of the accusations that it is working to unsettle Lebanon or of a link to the assassination of the son of Phalangist leader Amin Gamayel.
One such politician is Defense Minister Elias El Murr who declared victory over Fatah Al-Islam Tuesday then left the platform for army top brass to field probing questions from many inquisitive journalists. Maybe Murr is not yet ready to declare Syria innocent of the charges he had previously made and there is no question the reporters at the event would have let it slip unnoticed. This is, of course, unless there remain hopefuls in Lebanon who plan to link Syria to Al-Qaeda, not dissimilar to what the USA did with Iraq before the invasion only to declare it a "mistake" after the invasion!
According to the victorious Lebanese army, it seems that Fatah Al-Islam was seeking official affiliation to Al-Qaeda and the latter may have been procrastinating through a process of "testing" to see if the group would survive the assault before it links its brand name to a bunch that were wiped off the map!
This fits Al-Qaeda's business model in which it franchises its brand name to any group that is willing to carry out terrorism independently but which adopts its declared policies and adheres to the general road map to anarchy that it has crafted.
Al-Qaeda had previously given its franchise to one of its challengers in terrorism, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, and despite Al-Qaeda's continued disagreements with Al-Zarqawi's policy of slaying Shiites on the sole merit of their religious affiliation, they continued to recognize him until his death because otherwise it would have lost the presence on the ground in Iraq that it so badly needs.
Finally, the most unsettling lesson learned, is a lesson delivered over and over again: Guerilla warfare is very effective against conventional armies whatever their strength. If the experience of the American military force in Iraq is not a sufficient proof, or the grand victory of Hezbollah against the Israeli army - that is supposed to be the most powerful in the region - is not a message that will prevails over power, a small group of thugs like Fatah Al-Islam caused ten-folds casualties than it suffered when you count the injured on the side of the Lebanese army. Fatah Al-Islam was not an isolated phenomenon but part of a disease that is spreading all over and its weapon is guerilla warfare that has proven its effectiveness on the ground.
In addition to readying the military for showdowns similar to that of Nahr Al-Bared, Arab governments and their Western allies must effectively tackle the causes of why disillusioned young men from all over are adopting ideologies of bloodshed and mayhem. These causes range from occupation and failure of peace to a life not worth living in many countries of our large Arab World.
By Ramzi E Khoury
© The Saudi Gazette 2007
