Progress Towards The Millennium Development Goals In The Arab Region 2005

The following are extracts from a report prepared as a collaborative effort of UN agencies in the region on the occasion of the September 2005 World Summit and 60^th Summit of the General Assembly. The study was coordinated by the Economic and Social Commission for East Asia (ESCWA) and provides an overview of progress in the Arab region towards the stated aim of achieving the eight goals by 2015. The full report is available at: http://www.escwa.org.lb/information/publications/edit/upload/scu-05-3-sum-e.pdf

With respect to progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), sharp regional and intra-country discrepancies are evident. The high-income GCC countries are relatively well placed to achieve the Goals. The majority of the middle income Mashreq and Maghreb countries vary in their potential for reaching each Goal, because of national specificities. Based on past trends, the Arab least-developed countries (LDCs – Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen), Iraq and Palestine will be unable to achieve most MDGs. It is likely that the majority of those countries, and those coping with conflict, will make limited progress. There is an urgent need for the resource-rich and wealthy countries in the Arab region, and globally, to devote resources to those countries.

Resources, unless combined with reform of governance, including improved targeting, equal wealth and service distribution and accountability, are insufficient. Overall, additional measures are needed across the region in order to meet the goals of poverty reduction, gender equality and environmental sustainability, and to forge strategic global and regional partnerships and formulate effective macroeconomic and social policies. It is unlikely that the Arab region as a whole will succeed in eradicating poverty and hunger, particularly in the LDCs.

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty And Hunger

While measurement methodologies may vary, nationally-determined lines remain the most precise tool available for gauging poverty.¹ Based on those lines, and according to data available on 10 Arab countries which account for some 64% of the Arab population, namely, Algeria, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia and Yemen,² 16.8% of the Arab population was living in poverty in 2000, compared to 16.4% a decade earlier. In 2000, poverty levels were estimated to be 15.7% in the Mashreq, 9.1% in the Maghreb, and 47.1% in the Arab LDCs.³ No data are available for the GCC States. While between 1990 and 2000 slight fluctuations were observed in the Mashreq and Maghreb, poverty levels nearly doubled in the Arab LDCs, and the region as a whole is unlikely to succeed in achieving Goal 1.

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education

While between 1990 and 2002, net enrolment rates (NERs) in primary education rose by an estimated 8%, the region has yet to achieve universal primary education. In 2002, some 20% of children of primary school age were not enrolled.⁴ The Mashreq, Maghreb and GCC regions are closest to achieving the goal of universal primary education, with NERs in excess of 90%. On the other hand, almost half of all children in the Arab LDCs were not enrolled in school in that school year.

Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality And Empower Women

Gender Disparities In Literacy And Education: Albeit literacy rates have risen, it is estimated that in 2002, 44mn adult women (aged over 15 years), representing almost half of the female population, could not read or write. Of the 13mn illiterate young people (aged 15-24 years) in the region, 8.5mn were women.⁵

It is expected that if countries maintain the current rate of progress, the overall Arab region will succeed in achieving gender equality at all levels of education by 2015. Between 1990 and 2002, the gender parity index (GPI) increased at all levels of education: from 0.79 to 0.90 in primary education, from 0.76 to 0.91 in secondary education, and from 0.60 to 0.85 in tertiary education.⁶

Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality

Between 1990 and 2003, under-five child mortality in the Arab region declined from 91 to 70 deaths per 1,000 live births. With the exception of the LDCs, Arab countries are on track to achieve the target of reducing child mortality by one third. In Iraq, child mortality rates have risen as the result of more than 10 years of war and sanctions.⁷ In 2003 in the Mashreq, the under-five child mortality rate declined from 78 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 56. There has been a dramatic reduction in child mortality in the Maghreb, where child mortality rates have decreased by more than half since 1990, reaching 37 in 2003. Child mortality is lowest in the GCC countries: 23 in 2003, down from 39 in 1990.⁸

Conflict, extreme poverty and low investment in social services, including health, education, water and sanitation, are some of the basic causes for child mortality. Under-five child mortality is highest in countries affected by chronic conflict and/or underdevelopment, namely, Djibouti, Iraq, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. In those countries, close to or more than 1 in 10 children die before the age of five. In the LDCs alone, child mortality represents more than half of the total for the entire Arab region. In those countries, child mortality is closely tied to high levels of malnutrition, poor access to health services, poor nutrition and mothers’ lack of education.

Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health

Notwithstanding the progress that has been made, current maternal mortality rates (MMRs) and data on natal care indicate that the region is not on track to meet maternal health-related targets. In 2002, there were 377 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, compared to 465 in 1990.⁹ The greatest decline in MMRs was in the Arab LDCs, where they decreased by 2.2 times their 1995 level. There is, however, significant variation between the sub-regions. In 2000, MMRs in the GCC region were 29.8, compared to 144.8 and 165.5 in the Mashreq and Maghreb regions respectively. In the Arab LDCs, there were 716.7 maternal fatalities per 100,000 live births. Poor obstetric care services and lack of access to ante-natal services are often cited as key causes of high maternal mortality, in addition to poor referral systems and insufficient emergency obstetric care.

In the period 1995-2001, only 67% of all Arab women gave birth assisted by skilled health personnel.¹⁰ During that period, over 90% of deliveries in GCC countries were attended by skilled health personnel, whereas only slightly more than half of those in LDCs had such access. In the Mashreq and Maghreb regions, the proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel were 67.1% and 71.7% respectively.

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria And Other Diseases

While HIV/AIDS is not highly prevalent in the Arab region, the number of cases is on the increase. Between 1990 and 2003 the number of reported AIDS cases rose by some 42% to 13,865. Over half of those cases are in the LDCs, where more than 1% of the sub-region’s population aged between 15 and 45 is HIV-positive. However, there may be under-reporting of HIV/AIDS, because of the inadequacy of data collection, monitoring and reporting systems. Consequently, much uncertainty surrounds the extent to which the virus has spread among the principal at-risk groups. Data on the HIV status of pregnant women are also insufficient. Effort is required to create an early warning system and improve surveillance, monitoring and reporting, in order to contain the disease before it becomes a problem for the region.¹¹

Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability

Progress has been made in many countries of the region in addressing the challenges of sustainable development. A number of political forums have been established at the regional level, including the Arab Initiative for Sustainable Development, advanced by the League of Arab States in 2002, with a view to improving governance, defining goals and priority action areas and adopting such integrated approaches to sustainable development as the Abu Dhabi Declaration of 2003. However, the achievement of environmental sustainability will require more concerted efforts to protect and conserve natural resources, particularly energy, water and soil resources, improved efficiency in the use of non-renewable energy and water resources, and the correction of market failures and distortions by including the environment in national accounts.

Energy Accessibility And Efficiency

Despite the vast energy resources of the region, in 2003 only 78.6% of the Arab population had access to electricity, ranging from almost 100% in the GCC countries to under 8% in LDCs. The region’s overall energy efficiency (kilogram (kg) oil equivalent per $1,000 GDP (PPP)) has improved unevenly in the past decade. In 2002, the GCC countries reported the highest energy use (504 kg oil equivalent per $1,000 PPP), followed by those of the Mashreq (262 kg oil equivalent per $1,000 PPP) and the Maghreb (some 137 kg oil equivalent per $1,000 PPP). Data available data on energy use in the Arab LDCs are inadequate.

Goal 8: Develop A Global Partnership For Development

The achievement of Goal 8 is directly related to the creation of an enabling environment for pro-poor development at the national, regional and global levels. That pre-supposes a commitment by developed countries to assist developing countries to grow and participate effectively in the global economy. At the same time, developing countries should adopt policies that promote growth and development and socioeconomic integration and confront the challenges of globalization. One major problem facing the Arab region is that it is still perceived by many donors as being resource-rich, a perception which is strengthened by the classification of many Arab countries as middle-income countries and therefore not a priority for official development assistance (ODA).

Key Challenges And Issues

The Arab region has demonstrated progress in many MDG-related fields. However, progress varies across the sub-regions and at the country level, where urban-rural disparities persist. Despite concerted efforts, there have also been setbacks that are attributable to several factors, including poor economic performance, inadequate financing and political tensions and conflicts. The Arab region had one of the lowest per capita GDP growth rates in the 1990s and early 2000s. That poor growth record has been reflected in slow progress in human development in comparison with the average for developing countries. The Arab region faces a number of challenges to achieving the MDGs.

Unemployment

Unemployment is a major obstacle to growth and higher income. The Arab region is grappling with labor market challenges that have serious implications. The Arab labor force is growing by some 3.5% per annum. Structural unemployment is in double figures and female unemployment is twice that of men. At 21%, the unemployment rate among Arab youth in 2004 was more than double that of adults. Those levels have remained high throughout the Arab region since 1991.

The employment problem in the region is not only confined to middle-income countries and LDCs. In the GCC States, unemployment has become a national concern. One key problem of employment generation is the predominance of the energy sector, which has an extremely low employment multiplier, and the issue of foreign labor, which exceeds that of nationals, creating the problem of the nationalization of labor. Regionally, the problem of unemployment is tied to the quality of education and the mismatch between the skills of graduates and labor market demands.

Gender Gap

Because gender equality is an integral part of development the gender gap poses a challenge. Gender equality and the empowerment of women are essential components of all eight MDGs, and it is therefore vital that the gap is closed. With the exception of Morocco and, more recently, Iraq, no Arab country has attempted to introduce quotas for women in the political arena or build their capacities to become political participators, both as voters and candidates. Other factors, including social and cultural norms that marginalize women, should also be addressed.

Illiteracy

Countries all over the world have made the battle against illiteracy one of their top priorities. Egypt, Morocco and the Arab LDCs have the highest illiteracy rates.

War And Conflicts

The cost of war and conflict, in terms of lost lives, displacement, and setbacks to development, continues to be high, as is particularly evident in Iraq, Palestine, Somalia and the Sudan. Political tensions and wars have plagued the region and diverted government budgets towards military expenditure, reconstruction and coping with the impact of conflict. The instability brought by war and conflict threatens the sustainability and equal distribution of development gains. Peace and stability is urgently needed to enable the Arab region to better deploy its efforts to achieve MDGs.

The Way Forward

The achievement of MDGs is largely dependent on the adoption and implementation of pro-poor development policies and strategies and legislation that concerns gender equality, the environment, rural and urban development, health systems, education, science, technology and innovation. Stronger regional partnerships and integration, including greater intra-regional trade, are also required, as are increased funding and investment aimed at improving productivity.

Pro-poor Policies And Investment

Pro-poor, investment-led growth and heavy investment in social services and infrastructure are needed in order to produce the higher levels of economic growth that will assist in the realization of the MDGs. Public sector investment may serve as a channel for introducing labor-intensive techniques and promoting the growth of labor-intensive sectors. In light of the low capacity of the private sector to generate high investment rates, the inability of institutions to mobilize and direct savings, and imperfect market signals in the Arab region, the State continues to have a considerable role to play in harnessing resources for development.

Given the low literacy rate among women and the poor, an MDG-friendly policy framework requires concerted efforts to reduce illiteracy as part of its investment in human capital. Increasing the participation of women, the poor and other marginalized persons, including refugees, requires removing and changing institutional barriers, including legal frameworks and formal and informal discriminatory rules and practices.

Stronger Regional Partnership And Integration

The achievement of MDGs requires global and regional partnerships based on mutual accountability and responsibility, in which wealthier nations, through funding, debt relief and fair trade agreements, support the efforts of developing countries to adopt relevant development strategies within a supporting global environment. Greater South-South cooperation is also necessary for sharing experience and expertise. The integration of Arab markets would render the region more attractive to world investors, facilitate investment and growth, and generate employment opportunities and income.

In order to finance investment, Arab countries must receive higher ODA. However, it is equally important to raise funds from domestic sources. Various approaches can be adopted, including improved tax collection, an increase in non-traditional exports, the optimum use of natural resources, improved productivity and increased growth. Such measures must be adopted as part of a pro-poor comprehensive national development strategy.

Improved Productivity

Productivity across all sectors of the economy must be improved. Significant proportions of the population of many Arab countries are economically dependent on agriculture, and the incidence of poverty among those segments of the population is markedly higher than in urban populations. Significantly increased agricultural prosperity is required in order to achieve the MDGs in rural and agriculture-based communities. Increased investment in infrastructure and basic social services is essential to improve agricultural productivity and income. Sizeable investment in irrigation and land reclamation schemes would not only promote a rise in productivity but would also make more arable land available for distribution to landless farm laborers.

Institutional Capacity-building For Monitoring And Reporting

Throughout the region, institutional capacities to collect, compile, analyze and use statistics for policy and project formulation and management are weak. Developing institutional capacities to produce quality statistics would not only facilitate monitoring and reporting on MDGs, but also contribute to greater transparency and accountability.

Commitment To Keeping The Promise

Both rich and poor countries in the Arab region share the risks and benefits of not investing the financial and human resources necessary to achieve MDGs by 2015. Arab countries must enhance their human and institutional capacities, improve policies, promote investment and increase donor aid. That will require sustained action at the local, national and regional levels, and reform aimed at good governance, partnership, gender equality, environmental sustainability and pro-poor economic policies.

Notes:

1.    According to international figures, the percentage of the population living on less than $1 per day in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP)) is 2.4%, representing the lowest level anywhere in the world. While MENA does not correspond exactly to the Arab region, it may be taken to represent it. The $1 per day benchmark has no relevance for the GCC countries, which are, on the whole, high-income states. In those countries, a relative poverty line is preferable to a benchmark figure.

2.    The population of those 10 countries, taken together with that of Bahrain, Lebanon, Palestine, Somalia and the Sudan, represents some 79% of the Arab population. The incidence of poverty in those 15 countries is estimated to be 23%. The estimate for the 22 Arab countries is lower, because of the seven countries for which data are unavailable, only Iraq has a high incidence of poverty, while the GCC States and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya have lower poverty rates. Data are based on MDG country reports.

3.    MDG country reports, available at: www.undp.org/mdg/countryreports.html.

4.    ESCWA Social Statistics Datasets. Calculations are based on national data.

5.    Ibid.

6.    Ibid.

7.    WHO databases.

8.    UNICEF, State of the World’s Children 2005.

9.    UNICEF, State of the World’s Children 2005 and UNDP, Human Development Report 2004.

10.  United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) databases.

11. WHO-EMRO databases. The regional and sub-regional averages for the number of reported cases of HIV/AIDS include all 22 Arab countries, with the exception of Algeria, Comoros and Mauritania.