The amount of money that Middle East travelers spend on international leisure travel, will begin to exceed 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels, in as little as three years, according to a recent YouGov survey, commissioned by Reed Exhibitions, the organizer of Arabian Travel Market (ATM) 2021. This is supported by forecast analysis carried out by Tourism Economics (TE).

“This is very encouraging,” said Danielle Curtis, exhibition director Middle East, ATM, which will take place in-person at the Dubai World Trade Centre from May 16-19.

“In 2019, spending on international leisure travel in the Middle East was significant, representing 47 percent of the total overall travel spend, compared with 37 percent spent on domestic leisure travel and 8 percent each on international and domestic business travel.

“In 2020, spending on international leisure travel was only 20 percent of the amount spent a year earlier. However, this year, spending compared with 2019, will recover to around 50 percent. It will increase to 75 percent in 2022 and 95 percent in 2023, until 2024, when spending in this segment will exceed pre-COVID-19 levels by up to 10 percent,” added Curtis.

According to research by TE and its parent company Oxford Economics, the vaccine rollout, pent-up demand supported by high consumer savings, employment recovery and the easing of travel restrictions, will motivate the return to global economic growth of 5.6 percent this year, the fastest economic recovery in 40 years. The total contribution of the travel and tourism industry in 2019 accounted for 10.4 percent of total GDP worldwide, highlighting its importance to the global economy.

In advanced economies, household savings rates have jumped from less than 10 percent of income prior to 2020, to a spike of 25 percent during lockdown, before dropping to just over 15 percent as restrictions were eased.

In terms of vaccine rollout, although distribution may be uneven and therefore inhibit some destinations from welcoming tourists, many popular leisure destinations such as the UAE, US, UK, Spain and Turkey aim to have up to 70 percent of their populations vaccinated before the end of 2021.

“Leisure travel will lead the recovery, initially through domestic and short-haul travel, which peaked by as much as 85 percent of all overnight arrivals in the Middle East during 2020. This will gradually return to normal over the next four years at around 70 percent, as international travel becomes more popular and takes greater market share,” said Curtis.

In addition to international participants, a host of exhibitors from the Middle East will participate at ATM this year, including the tourism boards from the UAE’s emirates, Saudi Tourism Authority, Saudi Arabian Airlines, NEOM, Emirates, Etihad Airways, Bahrain Tourism and Exhibitions Authority, Jordan Tourism Board, Egyptian Tourism Promotion Board, Emaar Hospitality Group and Jumeirah International, among others.

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