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Saudi Aramco’s net profit after minority interest is expected to rise by 13.8% year-on-year (YoY) and 56.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 108.8 billion Saudi riyals ($29.01 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, according to a report by AlJazira Capital.
The net profit is anticipated to increase by 12.6% from the adjusted net profit reported in Q4 2025.
The sequential growth in adjusted net income is likely to be driven by crude oil prices surging 24.8% QoQ, due to better refining margins and reductions in certain operating costs, wiping out the impact of lower production of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of hydrocarbons.
Revenue is estimated at SAR 455.3 billion, up 6% YoY and 9.4% QoQ. The upstream revenue is expected to drive topline growth, rising 13.1% QoQ, while the downstream revenue is forecast to rise 6.8% QoQ.
The Saudi-listed oil giant’s revenue in 2026 is projected to increase to SAR 1.9 trillion, while net income is expected to rise to SAR 427 billion.
The brokerage estimates the average oil price of around $86 per barrel.
“We expect higher crude oil prices this year and flexibility to divert exports from east to west coast to reflect positively on Aramco’s revenue and earnings in 2026.”
AlJazira Capital has assigned an “Overweight” rating to Aramco stock, with a target price of SAR 29.6 per share, subject to an upward revision.
Aramco will publish its Q1 2026 results on May 1.
(Editing by Seban Scaria)
