Tuesday, Jan 25, 2005
As a mixed city of Arabs, Kurds and Turkomen, Kirkuk could be a positive example of a democratic Iraq - or the scene of its worst ethnic conflict.
But, so far at least, the campaign has been largely peaceful, although an explosion on Sunday rocked the nearby town of Hawi Jah.
The election has sprung to life in the city, despite seasonal rain flooding the streets.
"Of course I'm voting," said Rahim, a cigarette vendor with an Elect Iraq sticker next to a picture of Imam Hussein, the 8th-century Shia Muslim leader.
And at the Imam Hussein housing estate, named after Saddam Hussein until his removal, campaigners for the Kurdish "Brotherhood" list handed out leaflets next to a shop with a poster for the Shia list backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
Many in Kirkuk remember a golden era before the ruling Ba'ath party carried out demographic changes to ensure an Arab majority in the province, which contains 8.7bn barrels of oil, Iraq's second largest field.
Fearing Kirkuk would end up in an autonomous Kurdistan, the Ba'ath from the 1970s drove out Kurds and brought in Arabs, from the Sunni tribes at the heart of the regime and from the poorer Shia in the south.
After Mr Hussein's fall, the displaced Kurds waited in tents to the north, putting their hopes in a property commission established by the US-led authority, but progress was slow.
Only in the past six months have they returned to Kirkuk in significant numbers. Hundreds are building makeshift houses in the former Iraqi army's accountancy headquarters.
"I'm glad to be back, but conditions aren't good," said Hiwa Mohammad, who has spent 5m Iraqi dinars (Dollars 3,300, Pounds 1,757, Euros 2,529) on his breeze-block dwelling.
Conditions were even worse at Kirkuk football stadium, where hundreds of Kurdish families have made homes underneath the stands.
In voting with their feet rather than waiting for drawn-out political wrangling, Kurds returning to Kirkuk have emboldened their leaders. Authorities in Baghdad recently agreed that displaced Kurds could vote in the election for Kirkuk's provincial council.
The decision came only after the two main Kurdish parties - the Kurdistan Democratic party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan - threatened to boycott the election.
"We wouldn't have part-icipated without the displaced," said Kamal Kirkukli, the Kirkuk representative of Masoud Barzani, KDP leader.
"The Americans wanted the elections badly, and without the Kurds they couldn't have been successful," said another official.
Iraq's electoral commission has estimated that the decision could allow an extra 100,000 Kurds to vote in Kirkuk - tilting the provincial council, which is currently balanced, towards Kurdish hands.
The decision prompted one Arab party, the United Arab Front, to announce it was boycotting the poll.
Without the displaced Kurds, Mr Kirkukli estimated that the province had 197,000 Kurdish voters, 135,000 Arabs, 63,000 Turkomen and 3,300 Christians.
The Kurds see an election victory as a step towards including Kirkuk in the autonomous Kurdish region they would like Iraq's new constitution to recognise.
Their growing boldness derives also from a sense that Turkish opposition to
Kurdish control of Kirkuk will weaken as Ankara's European Union accession talks quicken.
Turkey's allies among the Turkomen of Kirkuk disagree, and the Turkomen Front is also considering withdrawing from the election.
"These so-called displaced Kurds have come from Iran and elsewhere," said Ziaddeen Bahadi of the Turkomen Independent Movement, part of the front.
"This election is 100 per cent unfair and not free."
But the Kurds are confident that their strategy can deliver electoral success and that any threat from Sunni Arab militants to disrupt the poll can be overcome.
Despite recent attacks on Kurds, including murders, security in the province was good, said Mr Kirkukli.
Even many Arabs, while apprehensive about the future, say they are keen to vote. "I'm voting Communist," said Behnan, a 65-year-old Arab originally from Baghdad. "Some Kurds say people brought by Saddam should go back. But I don't want to. I'm an Iraqi, this is Iraq, so why can't I live here?"
By GARETH SMYTH
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