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Goldman Sachs has lowered its second-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts to $90 for Brent and $87 a barrel for US WTI, down from previous forecasts of $99 and $91.
The downward forecast revision follows a US-Iran ceasefire. Brent crude was trading at $97.33 per barrel, with WTI at $97.93 per barrel.
The bank noted a reduced risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz, but still sees risks skewed upward, potentially rising to $115 in Q4 if tensions resume, says a Yahoo Finance article.
For the third quarter, however, the forecast remains unchanged at $82/bbl for Brent and $77/bbl for WTI.
“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” Goldman’s commodity analysts wrote in a note.
For the final quarter of the year, Goldman’s analysts are even more bearish, expecting average prices of $80 per barrel of Brent crude and $75 per barrel of WTI.
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