Clash between Shia militias seen as ill omen for unsettled political future: The potential prize is leadership of the influential community, writes Charles Clover from Karbala

Friday, Oct 17, 2003

In the street politics ofIraq's Shia clerics, victory goes to the imam who can fill the streets with the mostchanting, chest-beating supporters in the shortest time. Success requires powerful oratory, impeccable reputation and years of scholarship - not to mention a fleet of minibuses.

Which is why, when Sheikh Maytham Rahi Sa'doun impounded Sheikh Khalid Kadhumi's 44-seat vehicle last Saturday, during a pilgrimage to the holy city of Karbala, the response was swift and decisive.

First, Mr Kadhumi's men detained Mr Sa'doun and "took him to a place very far away", according to the former, after which his men grabbed Mr Sa'doun's own 21-seat vehicle for good measure.

But Mr Sa'doun's supporters would have the last word, however tragic the consequences. On Monday a huge street demonstration led by Sa'doun supporters, aimed at freeing their patron, ended with an armed attack on Mr Kadhumi's Mukhayyim mosque in Karbala, killing two people and wounding 17 on both sides.

The shockwaves of the first big clash between rival Shia militias since the end of the war, a dark portent for the future of Iraq's political process, are still settling on Iraq's Shia community.

On the face of it, the struggle is for control of the Karbala burial shrines of Abbass and Hussein, grandsons of the Prophet Mohammed who fell in the battle of Karbala in 680 AD and whose martyrdom is the basis of the Shia faith.

But the potential prize is leadership of Iraq's Shia, who form around 60 per cent of the population and may well determine the country's political destiny.

For six months, the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority has worked to prevent a rift from plunging the Shia into turmoil. Until now, the CPA could count as its main success the relative peacefulness of the Shia Arab south of Iraq - as opposed to the Sunni heartland, which is a magnet for guerrilla attacks.

The violence in Karbala has at its root the steady ursurpation of power and popularity by Muqtada al-Sadr, a fiery young preacher who has led a revolt against Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the supreme Shia spiritual authority in Iraq, and who declared last week the formation of an alternative Iraqi government. Mr Kadhumi is a key Sadr lieutenant in Karbala.

The violence also takes place at a key juncture in US-led negotiations to write a new constitution and hold elections in Iraq - a timetable for which is due to be submitted by Iraq's Governing Council, under yesterday's United Nations resolution, no later than December 15.

In July Mr Sistani issued a fatwa, or edict, declaring that the new constitution could be written only by an elected assembly. But with Shia factions at daggers drawn across southern Iraq, it now appears that Mr Sistani's request for a popular election can be neither granted nor refused without destabilising the south and risking further violence. That could put the political process in a deep freeze until an alternative sequence or timetable can be agreed.

The open schism between the two Shia groups goes back only a few months to a macabre murder on April 10, days after the liberation of the holy city of Najaf by US forces.

Abdul Majid al Khoi, an exiled Shia cleric brought back to Iraq by US special forces, was stabbed to death in Najaf, allegedly by supporters of Mr Sadr, though he denies any link to the killing.

Tension between Mr Sistani's supporters and those of Mr Sadr has periodically spilled over since then into insults and innuendo but not open warfare until now.

Two months ago Mr Sistani's agent in Karbala, Sheikh Abdul Mahdi Salami, evicted Mr Kadhumi from the shrine of Imam Hussein, where the two men had taken turns giving sermons on alternate Fridays. "We kicked them out, but not by force," Mr Salami said yesterday.

Following Monday's violence, Mr Salami and his supporters told journalists that the fighting had been caused by an attack on the shrines by Mr Kadhumi's forces.

Yesterday he denied saying this, stating nevertheless: "We had reports that they were planning to take over the shrines, and that is why we acted."

Clearly, Mr Kadhumi would like to regain a foothold in the shrines but denies an attempt to forcibly take them back. "We would only act on command from Muqtada Sadr, and so far he has not given such an order," Mr Kadhumi said on Wednesday.

But Mr Sadr's forces appear to have used last weekend's pilgrimage to bus militiamen from Baghdad, known as the Jaysh al-Mahdi. That clearly discomfited Mr Salami's supporters.

Bulgarian and Polish soldiers on peacekeeping duty have blocked roads to Karbala all week to prevent Sadr supporters from entering the city, keeping the peace for the time being. On Wednesday, a delegation from the Governing Council travelled to Najaf to mediate between Mr Sistani and Mr Sadr, who live just a block away from each other.

But the peace may not hold for long, according to both sides. An aide to Mr Sistani, who asked not to be named, said yesterday: "The US needs to do something about the militias immediately. If not, then there will be a civil war."

By CHARLES CLOVER

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