After Fahd's brothers, succession in Saudi Arabia is 'anyone's guess'

08 August 2005

Expert briefing Thomas Lippman

The death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia has brought forth reassuring words from Riyadh of a smooth transition to the new monarch, Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, and stability in the kingdom.

The kingdom does indeed appear stable now as the terrorism of the past two years has subsided, but in a very few years, the succession issue could become potentially destabilizing. After Abdullah and his half-brother Sultan (the defense minister who now becomes crown prince), the line of succession appears to be wide open. Prominent younger princes already are jockeying for position.

Abdullah, de facto ruler for a decade - thanks to Fahd's lingering illness - is 81 years old. Sultan is only a year younger. What happens after them is anyone's guess.

The United States and other Western countries have an obvious interest in a smooth transition, but there is virtually no way for outsiders to influence the succession process. The best that can be said is that none of the dozen or so princes presumed to hold or seek places in the line of succession is known to be hostile to U.S. and Western interests.

All Saudi kings for the past half-century have been sons of Saudi Arabia's legendary founder, King Abdul Aziz ibn Saud. Indeed, the country's "Basic Law of Government," promulgated by Fahd in 1992, specifies that "rule passes to sons of the founding king... and to their children's children." In the 1950s, the House of Saud was crippled by a power struggle between two of those sons, Saud and Faisal, which ended only when the senior princes collectively removed Saud as king and sent him into exile, installing Faisal in his place. Scarred by that experience, the senior princes have managed to subordinate their own ambitions, at least in public, to achieve orderly transitions and perpetuate the unchallenged rule of the al-Saud family.

Now, with Fahd's death and his brothers' advanced age, the pool of potential rulers who carry the cachet of their father is dwindling. If the senior princes have agreed on a successor, there has been no public indication of it.

Seniority is not the determining factor. The 1992 Basic Law says it is up to the king to choose his heir apparent. He can dismiss one choice and select another if he wishes. Under that law, Abdullah was not obliged to designate Sultan as crown prince. Given the long history of rivalry within the family, Abdullah could have decided to resolve the generational issue now and select one of the grandsons. But that could well have fatally split the House of Saud because of Sultan's strong claim.

Abdullah and Sultan are sons of the same father but different mothers. Sultan is one of the so-called Sudairi Seven, sons of Hassa al-Sudairi. Fahd was one of the seven, as are Prince Nayef, the powerful interior minister, and Prince Salman, longtime governor of Riyadh.

Abdullah took the easy way out and designated Sultan as next in line. Because of their ages, however, that decision will only punt the issue a few years at most into the future. Who comes after Sultan, who has himself been ill? One possibility would be Salman, a unifying figure as one of the Sudairi Seven and not yet 70.

King Abdul Aziz sired more than 40 sons, many of whom are still alive, including several younger than Salman. Many princes of that generation have long been excluded by family decision or personal preference from consideration, but some of them have ambitious sons. Uniting behind Salman could give the senior princes a decade or more of stability while all their grandsons sort themselves out.

The Basic Law says the monarchy is to pass not to the firstborn or to the oldest but to "the most upright among them." Abdullah has decided Sultan is the "most upright" for now. The delicate task facing Abdullah - the first new king since the Basic Law was issued - and Sultan is to determine how to identify the "most upright" after them.

Thomas Lippman is Adjunct Scholar at the Middle East Institute, Washington,D.C., a former Washington Post foreign correspondent in the Middle East, and author of a recent book on Saudi Arabia. This text first appeared as an MEI 'Perspective.' It is published in The Daily Star with permission.