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Arab autumn?

Human Rights Watch reports, by their very nature, never present a rosy outlook as they are given to highlighting the atrocities of governments and the lack of dignity and freedom they present to millions of their hapless citizens across the world.

And so its 2012 World Report is no exception. Paying special emphasis to Arab Spring, the report grimly notes that while the revolutions that broke out across the region euphoric, there is nothing inevitable about transitions to democracy.

"Watching decades of authoritarianism come to an end in Egypt and Tunisia was thrilling; who does not hope that it will usher in a new era of democracy and rule of law?," wrote Rachel Denber, deputy director of the Europe and Central Asia division at Human Rights Watch.

"But Soviet Union watchers have seen how the collapse of a repressive, authoritarian regime -- while it brings months of euphoria and sets complex political transformations in motion -- in no way guarantees the arrival of governments committed to human rights protection."

While present-day Russia and many Central Asian nations are miles ahead of the collapsed Soviet Union, many of these countries the leaders and political classes in 1991 had no interest whatsoever in relinquishing power - example Vladmir Putin.

"Rather than commit to a post-Communist transition, many leaders used police, the military, intelligence services, and the criminal justice system to consolidate their personal rule. They worked to neuter alternative political forces demanding more profound change," says Denber. "As a result, the institutional reforms necessary for accountable government, pluralism, and effective rights protection never happened."

THE HOGRA
The HRW report blames Western Governments for being complicit in the rule of authoritarian regimes that festered in the region for decades before finally exploding last year.

In fact, one of the reasons why Western Governments failed to see the changing mood in the region was primarily because they overestimated the robustness of some of robustness of some of the authoritarian regimes, and underestimated demands for a better life, measured partly in human rights terms.

"Yes, we heard a lot about the hogra, an Algerian term used throughout North Africa to denote the contempt of rulers toward their people. But we failed to see how quickly it could ignite into a region-wide revolt that is, in large part, a struggle for dignity," wrote Eric Goldstein is deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Division at Human Rights Watch.

Indeed, very few of the countries impacted by the revolution can report progress.

Many reformers in Egypt complain that while Hosni Mubarak may no longer be president of the country, but 'his regime' remains firmly entrenched, despite elections.

The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) has repeatedly locked horns with reformers and citizens as it failed to meet social and economic expectations of the country.

In Libya, life after Moammer Gaddhafi remains tough as the authorities look to bring the disparate groups and tribes under one flag. It will take years for democracy to take route and for Libyans to reap the benefits of a Gaddhafi-less state.

However, Tunisia has shown some progress after it deposed its dictator President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali. But while the country ushered in political reforms and saw an Islamic party come into power in elections, the progress has been far from smooth.

"The consolidation of human rights protection in the post-Ben Ali era was hampered by the police resorting to excessive force against continuing protests, delays in adopting decisive reforms toward a more independent judiciary, and challenges to freedom of expression that the interim government did not properly address," says HRW, which also cited the ouster of two interim governments immediately after Ben Ali's departure.

The situation is far worse in Bahrain and Syria, whose governments have failed to fully resolve any of the issues with their disenfranchised citizens.

The report notes that analysts failed to predict the Arab Spring because they were more focused on supply than demand when it came to human rights; that is, they were more attuned to the extent to which governments supplied (or did not supply) the chance to exercise basic rights than we were with the pent-up demand of people to exercise those rights, despite the risks involved.

HRW expects the volatile region to bring more surprises in 2012.

"Just as rising expectations for a dignified life shook several governments of the region in 2011, they may yet motivate revolts against successor governments, in Tunisia or elsewhere, should those governments fall short in this regard. We didn't see the Arab Spring coming because we missed signs of the thaw. But we would do well to keep in mind what Arab peoples showed us about the power of the aspiration for dignity, a power that they are unlikely to surrender anytime soon," wrote Goldstein.

© alifarabia.com 2012