What will Biden presidency mean for the world and Mideast?

The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States has sparked many projections and analysis about America’s future policies — whether or not they will be similar to those adopted by the Barack Obama administration.

These expectations are logical in principle, yet every time necessitates certain policies that govern the decision-making process. We all have seen how the euro and the pound increased in value, in the hope that something better is coming.

After four years of tensed relations, the US, the UK and the EU are expected to be in agreement with one another thanks to Biden’s administration. This rapprochement will most likely begin with the US rejoining the Paris climate agreement and reaching common ground concerning regional issues, especially Iran, Libya and Syria.

Everyone is now waiting to see how Biden will deal with Iran, because Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal (5+1) has given Tehran the chance to increase its uranium enrichment, in addition to developing missile systems without international supervision.

It is widely known that most of the previous US administrations had imposed different set of sanctions on Iran, specifically after the Iranian Revolution, something that the Rouhani administration is well aware of.

Despite such sanctions, Iran is still carrying out manoeuvres and provocative activities in the Gulf of Oman by launching short-range cruise missiles, testing new weapons, increasing uranium enrichment and imprisoning American citizens.

Although Tehran usually resorts to pressure tactics to elicit favours from international community, the new US administration is not expected to go easy on the Islamic republic nor be in favour of a quick nuclear agreement or yield to Tehran’s demands, especially as Israel takes a strong position against Iran.

Just recently, Israel launched massive raids on sites belonging to groups affiliated to Iran in the eastern region of Syria. That took place at a time when Israel was in touch with the US to express its concern over the new administration’s policies aimed at negotiating with Iran, following some leaks claiming Biden would choose to negotiate directly with Teheran.

But let’s take a look at what the US administration’s demands. They revolve around some basics that Tehran will reject, including dismantling ballistic missile programmes and involving other regional players in negotiations such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in addition to placing Iran’s nuclear programme under regional or international supervision.

Another key demand is requesting Iran to stop all political, financial and military support to its proxies in the region, something where Tehran has invested a lot of money, policy, and time. This demand — asking Iran to exist like a state concerned with its own development, not wars and weapons — is something that Iran will never agree to.

Therefore, the US-Iran negotiations are not projected to be easy or swift. Instead, the talks might face some sort of escalation in order to tip the scales. That’s why we might see some ferocious strikes or tougher economic sanctions, similar to that imposed by the Obama administration before signing the previous nuclear deal.