Gold set for modest rally before easing in 2022

Prices of the metal, traditionally seen as a safe store of wealth, surged to record levels above $2,000 an ounce early in the coronavirus crisis but sagged as economies reopened

  
Gold bars are seen at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna, Austria, March 18, 2016. Image used for illustrative purposes.

Gold bars are seen at the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna, Austria, March 18, 2016. Image used for illustrative purposes.

REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

BENGALURU- Gold prices will average a little above their current level of $1,830 an ounce for the remainder of 2021 before edging lower next year as the global economy recovers and central banks begin to tighten monetary policy, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Prices of the metal, traditionally seen as a safe store of wealth, surged to record levels above $2,000 an ounce early in the coronavirus crisis but sagged as economies reopened.

"Safe-haven demand should fade further as global growth recovers and inflation turns out to be temporary," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

Central banks may also move towards raising interest rates, lifting returns on government bonds from their current rock-bottom levels and making gold, which offers no yield, less attractive. 

In the short term, however, prices are supported by factors including a recovery in demand for gold jewellery and the potential for the dollar to weaken as emerging markets rebound. A weaker greenback makes dollar-priced bullion more affordable.

A recent uptick in inflation could also encourage investors to buy gold, often seen as an inflation hedge.

Gold will average $1,835 an ounce in the third quarter of the year and $1,841 in the fourth quarter, according to the median responses of a poll of 38 analysts and traders.

For the full year, prices will average $1,812, the poll found, while in 2022 they will average $1,785.

Those predictions are slightly higher than those found by a similar poll conducted in April. 

For silver, the poll forecast an average price of $26.50 an ounce this year - a little above its current level of $25.50 – and $25 in 2022. 

Silver is both a 'safe-haven' asset like gold but also widely used in industry.

"Silver is poised to benefit from the electrification process because of its use in solar panels, EVs (electric vehicles) and charging points, said Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered.

(Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Peter Hobson, Kirsten Donovan) ((nakul.iyer@thomsonreuters.com; Within U.S. +1 646 223 8780, Outside U.S. +91 80 6749 0417; Reuters Messaging: nakul.iyer.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))


More From Commodities