Wireless Intelligence launches new forecasts
12 July 2007. WCDMA HSPA cellular connections are expected to reach 40 million worldwide by end of 2008, reveals Wireless Intelligence, the joint venture between Ovum and the GSM Association. By 2010, WCDMA HSPA is expected to represent around 45% of total WCDMA cellular connections, which are also on track to exceed GSM connections by 2010 in those countries where the network has been launched.
WCDMA HSPA has started on a fast adoption cycle as it benefits from an optimum development cost, improving network coverage and affordable handsets being introduced to mid to low tiers of the market. "Asia-Pacific is driving growth during the initial phase of adoption, while European operators will boost total WCDMA HSPA cellular connections from the end of 2008," says Joss Gillet, Senior Analyst at Wireless Intelligence. WCDMA HSPA is expected to increase data traffic and non-voice revenues.
WCDMA HSPA will be commercially present in more than 60 countries by the end of next year, based on announced plans. With the aim of bringing broadband speeds to mobile networks, WCDMA HSPA is a software upgrade to existing WCDMA networks typically launched from 2003. The technology enables operators to enrich services and migrate the user experience from 'voice and text only' to a data-centric 'broadband user experience'.
WCDMA HSPA will go through a slow adoption phase until the end of 2008. There is still a lack of affordable devices, WCDMA coverage is still improving and services are only targeted at the mid to high end of the market. WCDMA HSPA is expected to represent around 6% of total WCDMA connections by the end of 2007 (11 million connections). "The fastest early growth is coming from Asia-Pacific, with operators such as KTF, Telstra and NTT DoCoMo already very aggressive in migrating their installed base to the new technology," says Gillet.
At an operator group level, Vodafone Group could reach 4.5 million WCDMA HSPA cellular connections by the end of next year. T-Mobile has been focusing more on its EDGE network and is expected to be more aggressive in launching WCDMA HSPA, especially in Germany, its home market. Orange and Telefonica O2 are following the same pattern as they expand coverage in their key markets, including Eastern European countries such as Poland and Czech Republic.
Finally, from 2009, WCDMA HSPA uptake in Western and Eastern European countries will trigger a fast adoption of the technology worldwide. "In 2010, worldwide WCDMA HSPA cellular connections are expected to represent around 45% of total WCDMA connections, numbering around 278 million cellular connections," concludes Gillet.
Main assumptions: technology migrationHandset launches - In 2006, operators were offering high-speed services mainly through HSDPA datacards. HSUPA datacards are expected to be introduced in the second half of 2007. HSDPA handsets will be more affordable from 2008, driving volume.
Handset pricing - As WCDMA moves towards the sub-€100 ASP segment, HSDPA benefits from time and volume advantages and is expected to hit the mid tier by the end of 2008. WCDMA HSPA handsets will hit the mass market faster than the existing WCDMA handsets.
Tariffs - Operators will differentiate by offering new services based on flat-rate tariff plans with WCDMA HSPA as one of the enablers.
Network cost of development - WCDMA HSPA is a software upgrade to the existing WCDMA network infrastructure and is therefore not particularly costly except for backhaul.
Network coverage - WCDMA HSPA will generally be implemented over the whole WCDMA network of an operator, starting with the most densely populated zones.
Technology migration - We have assumed that WCDMA to WCDMA HSPA migration will follow a similar pattern to migration from CDMA2000 1X to CDMA2000 1XEV-DO.
Exceptions - Networks in China and India have not been included in the WCDMA HSPA forecasts as operators have not yet announced any official deployment. Similarly, Russian WCDMA HSPA connections have not yet been forecasted.
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About Wireless IntelligenceWireless Intelligence is a venture between Ovum and the GSM Association. It is also endorsed by the CDMA Development Group (CDG). At the heart of its activities is a comprehensive database on the global mobile market. It currently contains 1,100,000 individual data points drawn from 670 operators in 221 countries, across all mobile technologies. Through a unique partnership the majority of the world's operators have access to the database for validation and contribution.
Whilst Wireless Intelligence is able to draw on the combined strengths of its parent organisations, it acts as a separate entity to ensure absolute confidentiality and independence.
About OvumOvum's primary activity is providing value-added advisory services and consulting to retained and project clients. The company acts as a well-respected and trusted source of industry data, knowledge and expertise on the commercial impact of technology, regulatory and market changes. Ovum engages in continuous research and industry analysis to determine market dynamics in its specialist sectors.
Ovum has developed long-standing relationships with many of its corporate clients, which include major international blue-chip companies such as Alcatel-Lucent, AT&T, BT, Cable & Wireless, Cisco Systems, Deutsche Telekom, Fujitsu, HP, IBM, Microsoft, Telstra and Vodafone.
Ovum is part of the Datamonitor Group
About the GSM AssociationThe GSM Association (GSMA) is the global trade association representing over 600 GSM mobile phone operators across the world. In addition, more than 150 manufacturers and suppliers support the Association's initiatives as key partners. The primary goals of the GSMA are to ensure mobile phones and wireless services work globally and are easily accessible, enhancing their value to individual customers and national economies, while creating new business opportunities for operators and their suppliers. The Association's members serve more than 2 billion customers - 78% of the world's mobile phone users.
For further information:
EMEA
Claire Booty
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7551 9081
Email: prteam@ovum.com
North America
Sara Kaufman
Tel: +1 617-722-4602
Email: prteam@ovum.com
Asia-Pacific
Tanisha Kuckreja
Tel: +61 3 9601 6723
Email: prteam@ovum.com
© Press Release 2007
