S&P Global Ratings – There's growing belief in Southeast Asia's US$290 billion Islamic banking market. Over the next three years, the market is poised to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 8%, primarily led by Malaysia and Indonesia.
That's according to a report published by S&P Global Ratings today titled, "Growing Belief In Southeast Asia's US$290 Billion Islamic Banking Market." (attached)
Southeast Asia is the world's third largest Islamic banking market, forming 17% of the US$1.7 trillion in global Islamic banking assets.
"In the major markets of Malaysia and Indonesia, we believe Islamic banks will grow faster than conventional banks, riding on the robust demand," said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Nikita Anand.
In Malaysia, local Islamic banks could account for about 45% of the overall commercial banking loan book by the end of 2026, the report finds.
In Indonesia, the sector's market share could improve to about 10% by the end of 2026.
In Brunei, Islamic financial institutions constitute about half of the total financial system assets and growth should mirror that of the broader banking system. In the Philippines, the sector is small but there is an untapped market and regulators are striving to increase transparency in a bid to encourage local and foreign investment.
This trajectory will face inevitable hurdles. The region's recovery from COVID-19 has been uneven. Pandemic-related loan relief has distorted the true health of asset quality. Meanwhile, geopolitical shockwaves have pushed up energy and commodity prices, which could affect domestic demand.
In both Malaysia and Indonesia, Islamic banks are making greater efforts at digital transformation to narrow the wide technology gap with conventional peers.
On the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) front, we believe top-tier Malaysian Islamic banks will benefit from the issuance of international sustainability sukuk.
"Such benchmark issuances will widen the investor base and facilitate broader awareness of Islamic finance and its intrinsic ESG connection in the international debt capital markets," said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Rujun Duan.
This report does not constitute a rating action.
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Senior Account Executive