"Currently the Middle East is the second fastest growing tourism zone in the world"
MUSCAT: Some of the major future challenges of our planet will be overpopulation, the growth of an ageing population, environmental degradation and the supply of oil and alternative technologies combined with rapid changes in technologies. "During the coming two decades the nature of problems and solutions will become clearer. These decades will be key decades, the actions that will be taken will have key impacts on our Earth," said Professor Dr. Chris Ryan during a public evening talk titled "Mega-Trends - Tourism Development, Marketing and Issues of Future Sustainability" that was held at the German University of Technology in Oman (GUtech) in Al Athaiba on Sunday evening. Chris Ryan is Professor of Tourism at the University of Waikato Management School. GUtech's Department of Sustainable Tourism and Regional Development had invited Professor Ryan to give several lectures to GUtech students as well as a public lecture. "Professor Ryan is an expert in tourism and a very active researcher and editor of Tourism Management. Since tourism will be one of the future main sources of income in Oman, Professor Ryan's international expertise is very valuable," said Professor Dr. Burkhard Rauhut, Rector of GUtech in his introduction.
According to Professor Ryan, China will be the leading tourism country in terms of recipients in 2040 while currently the Middle East is the second fastest growing tourism zone in the world.
During the evening talk he described the global future trends that will affect the tourism industry worldwide. Within the next 50 years the world's population will expand each year as much as the population of Italy. Overpopulation will put pressure on natural resources, for example energy consumption will rise, but while the world's population will grow by 50 percent - will our fresh water supply rise as well? All of this has implications for tourism. However, one of the future challenges in tourism will be in developed countries a shortage of younger labor and an upward pressure on wages, the need for professional training, education and structured career paths that retain labor. In some parts of the world there will be an access of young labor but how to train people with different educational backgrounds from emerging countries like China, India, Russia, Brazil.
It may be argued that an ageing tourism population will have different interests while travelling. In New Zealand adventure tourism which is very popular among young travelers will shift - for example from bungee jumping and wildwater rafting to a more general floats in the same boats but with some local story-telling by a tour-guide.
Implications for tourism due to environmental changes include the example that ski-fields will have shorter seasons. To extend the season, extra energy costs will be spent to produce more. Environmental degradation will be obvious. "New Zealand publicized itself in the 90s as green and pure country," said Professor Chris Ryan. However, nowadays the environment has changed and some lakes became toxic due to the increase in pesticides used in agriculture.
Professor Ryan compares the tourism attitude with the change in smoking habits in Europe. In the 90s people were smoking a lot in Europe. "It took about 30 years to change their smoking attitudes and perhaps the shape of tourism will change in the next years as we become more concerned with carbon emissions. We may have different attitudes for travel. In the future tourism needs to be regarded more holistic," said Professor Chris Ryan. Some of the areas of research include studies on how places may react to the local and global change of culture, urban planning, the role of recreation, leisure, retailing and governance in tourism.
Professor Ryan is editor of Tourism Management, the leading tourism research journal as measured by impact factors. As a researcher he has won several awards for his research, including a life-time achievement award from the Taiwan Leisure and Recreation Association. He is an elected Fellow of the International Academy for the Study of Tourism - an academy restricted to 70 global researchers. He has published over 200 academic papers and books, and is a visiting professor at the Emirates Academy Dubai, Beijing International Studies University, Hong Kong Polytechnic University and an Honorary Professor of the University of Wales. He has also worked at an international level including holding advisory positions at the APEC Tourism Ministers' meetings in 2000 and 2004.
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© Press Release 2011
