In GCC-Iran relations, there are a numerous critical issues, all of which are critical for both sides. These issues are the products of geography and history, as well as the result of the divergent national and strategic interests of the two sides. However, unlike other examples of conflicts in the international political arena, the GCC-Iran conflict has one vital element missing, that of an effective balance of power.
In recent history, the Iran of the Shah and then its successor, the Iran of Ayatollahs, has invested considerable effort and money in building power and influence centers inside some of the Gulf Arab states, and certainly inside other Arab states. In that context, Iran has sought to harness the support of the Shia community, or a part of it, in certain Gulf Arab states, as a means to back Iranian political and strategic objectives.
Looking at this approach in general terms, Iran has scored considerable success in its attempt to utilize the card of sectarian identity and make out of this an issue of loyalty superior to other loyalties. Let it be clear, the great majority among the members of the Shia communities in the Gulf States have never deviated from loyalty to their own country and to their Arab identity. Indeed, they have never suffered from a conflict of loyalties because, in short, they have no other loyalty superseding that to their country and to their Arab national belonging.
For this clear majority, Iran has been, and still is, a Persian state which competes and is in conflict with its Arab neighbors. It is a state that has its own national interests which, in many areas, contradict and conflict with Arab national interests. They see no political dimension in their sectarian identity. In fact, they have never considered the need to develop any form of a sectarian loyalty or, by extension, loyalty to Iran or its political objectives.
Still, since the success of the Iranian revolution, the Ayatollah regime has persistently tried to project Iran as the mentor, promoter and protector of Shia interests and, indeed, of the Shia population around the world. Over time and particularly today, this self-proclaimed status of Iran as the leader and protector of the Arab Shia has turned into the main instrument of Iranian interventionist policy in internal Arab affairs. By applying such mechanism, it has been said that Iranian intelligence with the help and support of the state's religious institutions has succeeded in mobilizing a 'fifth column' in some Gulf Arab states. In turn, a very tiny minority of citizens has allegedly accepted to serve the interests of a foreign state. And with such a 'fifth column', Iran possesses a strategic advantage over most of the Arab states.
Going back to the opening argument that the GCC-Iran conflict has some vital elements missing, it is in fact the balance in this conflict that is missing. While Iran is able to effectively act from within Gulf Arab societies, the GCC states do not have the ability to act in such a manner or to redress the balance. As a result, this one-way interventionist policy has made these societies vulnerable vis-a-vis Iranian objectives.
The equation in this issue is clear. The more Iran weakens, the more it is going to utilize the sectarian card to gain influence and achieve its objective of destabilizing Gulf Arab societies. No doubt, for reasons relating to the nature of Bahraini society, Bahrain represents the 'fault line' in this confrontation. In addition, other Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait with small Shia minorities could be equally targeted.
Meanwhile, the people of Iran have been protesting against a regime which has shown no respect for human rights, a regime which has dealt harshly with any demand for reform and has never recognized the right of any opposition to exist.
In the end, no one should, or could, deny the right of the people - irrespective of their ethnic, religious, or sectarian origins - to demand respect for their human rights and to ask for political and economic reforms. Yet, it should be equally the case that such justified and fair demands should not be hijacked by a tiny minority which is wearing the cloak of 'Gulf citizenship'.
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© Press Release 2011
