Tunis - Tunisia places protecting citizens’ purchasing power and controlling price trends at the top of its developmental priorities for the coming period.

Official forecasts target inflation stability around 5.3% in 2026, the same rate reported Monday, by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) for the full year 2025. This reflects a strong commitment to curbing inflationary pressures, which had reached 7% in 2024.

This annual decrease coincided with stable consumer inflation in December 2025, at around 4.9%.

2025: Important step in downward trend

According to the Household Consumer Price Index released by the INS Monday, Tunisia achieved initial success in 2025 by reducing inflation to 5.3%. Despite pressures on food prices, which rose 6.1%, the significant drop in edible oil prices (-8.14%) and the stability of core inflation (excluding energy and food) at 4.9% at year-end paved the way for a more stable outlook for 2026.

The first part of 2025 was characterised by effective control of inflation rates, keeping them within acceptable limits. This was supported by the cautious monetary policy of the Central Bank of Tunisia, which helped sustain the downward trend in inflation.

Notably, the key interest rate was cut by 50 basis points on March 26 and December 30, 2025.

This decline is primarily explained by the absence of external inflationary pressures, stable global commodity prices, a stable Tunisian dinar exchange rate, and improved national supply due to increased production.

Other contributing factors include market supply monitoring, stricter oversight, no increases in regulated prices (especially fuels) and the cautious monetary policy.

However, inflationary pressures were observed in the agricultural sector during the first nine months of 2025 due to production shortages in certain products, particularly grains, fresh vegetables, and red meat, while industrial goods and services prices showed slower growth.

Official forecasts indicate that the downward trend in inflation is expected to continue in 2026, supported by easing pressure on food prices.

Authorities plan to rely on supporting national production and accelerating the digitisation of monitoring systems and distribution channels to control price developments.

2026: Targeting 5.3% inflation as a top priority

The government expects that in 2026, efforts to control inflation and keep it within acceptable levels will continue, with a focus on ensuring regular availability of essential goods through reserve stockpiles, intensified monitoring to limit speculation, combating monopolies and better organising distribution channels, according to the 2026 Economic Balance Report.

Prime Minister Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri emphasised in a government statement during discussions on the 2025 Finance and State Budget Laws in November that: “controlling prices and preserving citizens’ purchasing power is the state’s top priority, which continues its efforts to regulate prices and reduce inflation through maintaining essential goods prices, combating excessive price hikes, monitoring profit margins, controlling production input costs, and offering citizens diversified options via direct sales and differential pricing.”

She noted that despite positive results, such as regular supply of essential goods and dropping inflation, prices remain high and affect citizens directly. She stressed continuing efforts to dismantle speculation and monopolies, with intensified monitoring across all production and distribution stages, including markets and warehouses.

According to the Prime Minister, continuous monitoring of distribution channels and strict price and quality controls will continue throughout the year, supported by digitisation and the use of all available resources to ensure more effective, transparent, and fair oversight, serving the citizen and protecting purchasing power.

To maintain inflation around 5.3% in 2026, the government highlights the need to integrate economic and social policies with sectoral strategies, enhancing efficiency and ensuring proper use of available resources.

It also stresses the importance of effective monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to guarantee timely implementation of measures and programmes.

Overall, these comprehensive and integrated measures are expected to strengthen the competitiveness of the economy and promote inclusive growth, reinforcing social, economic, environmental, and regional equity.

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