Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania are relatively politically stable. But they have endured hard knocks on their economies due to recent conflicts in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and South Sudan.

Private sector players in the region are warning that no one will be safe as long as the neighbourhood is in war, reflecting how trade connections between these countries are at risk.

Conflicts have disrupted the flow of goods, food security, and caused human displacement, all of which add a burden to the economies.“Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda are the most affected by the wars, as their goods are the most exported to both South Sudan and in Goma, eastern DRC. It is, therefore, in the interest of the EAC to ensure that these conflicts are resolved,” said John Lual Akol Akol, chairperson of the East African Business Council (EABC), the lobby for the private sector in the East African Community.“The DRC is the major country which imports goods from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. And if it is not stable like we are seeing now in eastern Congo, it will affect the economic growth in the region.”Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is the most significant destination of goods and services mainly supplied by Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi and Tanzania.

Read: EAC adopts new levies on ‘high risk’ products to curb unscrupulous tradersThe presence of troops from various countries, including Belgium, Uganda, Rwanda, DRC forces and the withdrawing Southern African forces in the region heightened tensions among key actors, raising concerns that the situation could escalate to engulf more countries.

The capture of Goma and Bukavu by the rebel group M23 disrupted trade routes and economic activity in the region, which are the main consumers of East African goods in the DRC.

Kenya's main exports to the DRC include iron and steel, tobacco, wheat flour, confectionery, sugar, and milling products, most of which ends up in eastern Congo.

Tanzania has also expanded its exports to the DRC, increasingly competing with Kenya and Uganda for market share.

Businesses in the DRC are facing liquidity crises, and the flow of goods from neighbouring countries like Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi has slowed or been diverted.

Banks, airports, and important trade routes remained closed. Now, the Northern Corridor is reeling under goods, with Mombasa port registering increased volumes of cargo destined for South Sudan, some of which has been diverted from Port Sudan.

The Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority (NCTTCA) said the conflicts have disadvantaged South Sudan traders, forcing them to use longer routes to deliver goods.

NCTTCA Executive Secretary John Deng said the corridor is being strained, as goods which were being handled by Port Sudan have been diverted to Mombasa port due to the war in Sudan.“Mombasa port is benefitting from the number of cargo being diverted to the Northern corridor, but South Sudan traders who have been using Port Sudan, are enduring high cost of transportation of goods because of the tension,” Dr Deng said in Mombasa.

This week, the Sudan government asserted that an earlier ban on Kenyan tea to the country was still on, despite President William Ruto insisting that the commodity was still accessing the Sudanese market.

Port Sudan termed Dr Ruto’s statement that trade between two countries was still on despite the ban “inaccurate.”"Sudan's Ministry of Trade and Supply issued a decree suspending all imports from Kenya in line with Sudan's national interests. This decision has been fully implemented and since then, no Kenyan products including Kenyan tea have been imported into Sudan remains firmly committed to upholding this trade policy as part of its sovereign economic and diplomatic considerations," said a statement from the Sudanese embassy in Kenya.

Some 207 containers of tea destined for Sudan are stuck along supply chain, with exporters potentially losing $10 million.

East African Tea Trade Association (EATTA) Managing Director George Omuga has appealed to Nairobi to engage Sudan to allow buyers a window of at least one month to clear the teas already dispatched to that country to mitigate the losses to Kenyan traders and farmers.

Read: Sudan blocks Kenyan goods as AU rejects ‘parallel’ government bidSudan is ranked among the top 10 markets for Kenyan tea and the standoff could mean a decline in exports to Sudan, impacting trade.

Kenya exports various commodities to Sudan, including tea, food items, and pharmaceutical products.

Before the current hostilities, Sudan bought about $37 million in Kenyan tea. On March 14, Sudan suspended all imports from Kenya in protest after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, who were fighting the country’s army in a two-year civil war, formed a parallel government in Nairobi.

Meanwhile, government of DRC has lost significant revenues to the rebels, with a December 2024 UN report saying that the M23 had generated nearly $800 million in taxes on the production, trade, and transport related to the coltan mines around Rubaya since April 2024.

Further, former UN investigator Jason Stearns claimed that Rwandan mineral export revenue had doubled over two years on this crisis in eastern Congo. This growth includes a jump in gold exports despite Rwanda not being a major gold producer.

Meanwhile, the tension in South Sudan continues to disrupt trade with Kenya and Uganda, and Kampala is poised to lose a lot if the crisis does not de-escalate.

In January, 2025, Uganda's exports to South Sudan were $55.9 million, a 54 percent increase from the previous month, surpassing Kenya as Uganda's top export market.

Last year, Kenya exported $227 million to South Sudan. But now the flow of goods has been disrupted by the tension in Juba between President Salva Kiir and his deputy Riek Machar.

Akol Akol notes that East African economies performed well in 2023/2024, but the economic indicators for this year point to a shift.“With the war in DRC and now South Sudan, we can’t predict the exact growth this year. Similarly, South Sudan is not stable in terms of the business and also the political conflicts which are now going on. Investors are appealing to leaders in South Sudan not to escalate the war. We still have some hope because President Salva Kiir is committed to peace,” he said.

In South Sudan, efforts by Kenya through former prime minister Raila Odinga have yet to yield the desired results.

Read: Why Raila’s mediation in Juba hit bumpsBut President Kiir this week met with Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni, a meeting expected to bear fruit in rescuing the 2018 peace deal that has held South Sudan in relative calm, until this year.

Trucks transporting goods and fuel from Kenya’s Eldoret depot have been stuck at the Malaba border.“We are not comfortable transportation of goods from Mombasa to Juba. There are too many roadblocks on the way to Juba. The other day fuel from Eldoret was diverted by rebels, putting our drivers at risk,” said David Masinde, president of Long Distance Truck Drivers in Africa.

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