Billy Gillis-Harry, the national president of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), has issued a warning that the price of premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could exceed N2,000 per litre. Similarly, he noted that the price of diesel might reach N3,000 per litre if the conflict in the Middle East continues.

In a statement released on Monday, Gillis-Harry explained that without a clear resolution in sight for the war, the prices of petroleum products in both international and domestic markets are likely to keep rising as the situation escalates.

He said “PMS could rise close to N2,000 per litre while AGO may approach N3,000 per litre if the situation persists. PMS remains essential for daily mobility, while AGO is vital for manufacturing and industrial operations. The ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran is pushing global petroleum price. Sustained drone and missile attacks now threaten critical oil routes and infrastructure, creating uncertainty in global supply chains” adding that the situation “would worsen inflation, cause job losses, deepen economic hardship, increase transportation costs, and raise prices of goods and services nationwide”.

While calling for the resucitation of the moribund refineries in the country to meet urgent domestic need, the PETROAN chief charged the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of the national oil company, the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), Engineer Bayo Ojulari, to see to that Area 5 plant at Port Harcourt refinery and the Warri refinery commence operations without further delay to ease the pains Nigerians are currently passing through.

According to Gillis-Harry, local refining would not only reduce exposure to international market volatility, he said state-owned refineries have ways of surviving compared to private ones which rely largely on imported crude.

Also a financial analyst and public finance expert, Mr Steve Nwachukwu, has said rising crude price aided by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East will continue to have effect on how much a litre of fuel will cost globally and especially in Nigeria.

Nwachukwu, who was speaking during a radio program monitored by Nigerian Tribune on Monday in Abuja, said the crude oil could reach an all-time high US-Iran war $220 per barrel and even more should the conflict persist. The effects he said could have a devastating effect on Nigerians.

He said the problem could be compounded if Strait of Hormuz under the control of Iran is completely closed disrupting oil flow and affecting tanker and oil vessels from transporting crude to different parts of the world. He added that should the Strait be closed permanently, there is every possibility that refineries world over will run out of stock and even see a surge in crude price.

He said, “The truth is that the primary determinant of this very byproduct of crude, petroleum, is the crude. Whatever be the situation, the international selling price of crude will determining where we are heading to. If the crisis or conflict in the Middle East continue to escalate, we expect the crude oil to even touch over a $100 to $110 to $220 per barrel.

“But if anything makes it and the crisis or conflict reduces, one has to also say that this issue will abate a bit in our nation and other nations across the world. So, the primary determinant is the rising cost of crude. Wherever it heads, the direction the crude heads, determines what will be the fate of Nigerians in couple of days or weeks ahead.”

He added, “The truth is I don’t know how long and how verified the claim of the absolute closure or is it for selected few vessels and tanker vessels to pass through. Because I know that China is also putting a lot of pressure on the Iran government to make sure that they allow the flow of energy, gas and crude oil to flow along that Strait. If we had a 100% closure, it’s within weeks that some of these refineries will start running out of stock and we’ll see the price even hitting above what we expected.

“But if there’s a pressure on Iran to continue to allow the flow of tanker vessels or to allow vessels and tank oil to flow along the Strait of Hormuz, it means that it will be as what we think. We pray that there won’t be a total closure but if there’s a total closure, it’s a matter of weeks and the refineries will run out of stock.”

Nwachukwu added that until the Petroleum Industrial Act (PIA) is amended to accommodate 5% or 10% local production for Nigerians, the citizens will continue to bear the brunt of the ongoing conflict or any similar conflicts in the future. He said the Nigeria’s dead refineries have made the country very vulnerable adding that Dangote Refinery has not given Nigeria any immunity to global oil shock for now.

“Let’s be honest we cannot be immune to global oil cost or shocks until we decide to develop a local, a Nigerian and an internal model that benefits the millions of Nigerians. Not subjecting Nigerians to the best international practice in the case of the cost of this very crude selling at international price. Until unless we move away from such and have a legislation, repeal or reenactment of the Petroleum Industrial Act (PIA) to make a provision that let’s say 5% of crude oil production or 10% is subject to local population not subject to international selling price. So you can say Dangote Refinery refine this 10% for the local economy not subjecting the price to international selling price of crude.

“Otherwise as the crude continues to fluctuate in prices so will the price of this very byproduct continue to punish Nigerians. So, until we look inwards that is the only way we can have the move against this global shock of selling price of crude. Like I said, until we have a legislation that provides a local model for the local economy, we’ll not be immune from this very fluctuation and the shocks arising from this conflict,” he concluded.

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