When Ethiopia’s Capital Market Authority (CMA) granted its first foreign investment banking licence to a unit of Nigeria’s United Capital Group, it shattered expectations across East Africa. Nairobi had been confident that a Kenyan bank would claim the historic prize – a goal Kenyan institutions had pursued for years.

Kenya had already carved out an advantageous position in Africa’s second-most-populous nation through a Safaricom-led consortium that secured Ethiopia’s first private telecom licence, broke the state monopoly, and rapidly attracted millions of subscribers.

With close geography, long commercial ties and Kenya’s expanding footprint in the country, many analysts expected a Kenyan financial player to follow through the same door. Instead, Nigeria got there first.

The development underscores what some business figures quietly refer to as the “Dangote effect”. Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, already runs one of the largest industrial operations in Ethiopia through Dangote Cement. Years of successful dealings there have built trust in the company and seem also to have opened pathways for broader Nigerian investment.

More recently, Dangote agreed on a multi-billion-dollar urea fertiliser project with the Ethiopian government. Meanwhile, back home, Dangote’s Petroleum Refinery ranks as the world’s largest single-train facility at 650,000 barrels per day (bpd).

It emerged as the world’s largest single exporter of jet fuel in April 2026 and aims to more than double capacity to 1.4 million bpd by 2028. That would make it the planet’s biggest refinery overall, overtaking Reliance’s Jamnagar complex in India, which produces 1.24 million bpd.

With such scale, many begin to believe that other Dangotes are ready to replicate the same success, so they open their doors. And when a big firm cracks a once-tough or closed market, it paves the way for more to follow.

Africa has witnessed this pattern before. South African powerhouses like Shoprite, MTN and MultiChoice endured decades of currency swings, regulatory friction and political volatility across the continent.

In doing so, they forged commercial networks that link markets more efficiently than many governments manage. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) often features in talk of treaties and summits. Yet businesses are already knitting the continent together by pursuing growth across borders.

The private sector is constructing the real Africa while politicians haggle over tariffs. Integration remains patchy, however. According to Afridigest and the African Private Capital Association, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Morocco, and Côte d’Ivoire account for up to 85 percent of investment.

While commerce binds Africa, politics frequently tears it asunder. In Zimbabwe, the Constitutional Amendment Bill Number 3 has triggered strong resistance. It seeks to extend the presidential term from 5 to 7 years, allowing 83-year-old Emmerson Mnangagwa to remain in power until 2030.

It would also move presidential selection from a direct popular vote to a parliamentary one. Even veterans of the liberation war and retired generals have spoken against it. Liberation movements that once gained legitimacy through anti-colonial fights now cling to power and shield the very systems they created.

The gulf between business dynamism and political rot stands out sharply in Nigeria, the very country now bringing financial services into Eastern Africa.

President Bola Tinubu’s nomination as the ruling party’s candidate for 2027 demanded a filing fee of 100 million naira – roughly $80,000. For an average Nigerian schoolteacher, that equals more than 100 years of earnings.

Poverty still holds the country in its grip. Sixty-three percent of Nigerians – almost 140 million people – live below the poverty line. Seven million more slipped into poverty last year alone.

Over 31 million people endure acute food insecurity, and Nigeria sits near the bottom of the Global Hunger Index. Yet the ruling party is widely tipped to retain power in 2027. Ethnic, regional and religious ties remain strong. For many voters, day-to-day survival outweighs policy promises. Jobs, patronage and food count for more than reform.

Even so, Nigeria’s private sector is thriving. Nollywood produces over 2,500 films annually, second only to India. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with its 650,000 barrels a day capacity, has become one of the world’s largest aviation fuel exporters. Flutterwave, valued at over $3 billion, now operates in 30 African countries.

These achievements prompt a key question: why has this private-sector energy not produced stronger public institutions? Many Nigerians reply with a single word: Japa. It means emigration. Confronted by a political system resistant to change, skilled professionals depart for better prospects overseas.

Africa’s companies are expanding across the continent. Its talent is heading global. Yet its politics stay mired in old ethnic loyalties and patronage networks.

There is a fringe view that Africa’s successes stem precisely from these failures. A corrupt or inept tax authority that fails to collect effectively acts as a tax break for small businesses.

A weak state unable to register every firm or impose tight rules cannot smother innovation with bureaucracy. In some cases, corruption serves as a route for elites to forge consensus.

These are among Africa’s core contradictions. Thus, despite his dismal record, Tinubu remains the favourite to win in 2027. And from Nigeria’s very chaos emerge stars like United Capital Group, boasting reported total assets of about $1.29 billion and funds under management exceeding $1.49 billion.

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