Saudi Aramco is forecast to report a 14.7% fall in net income (after minority interest) to 90.6 billion Saudi riyals ($24.2 billion) in the second quarter of 2025 to SAR 106.2 billion a year ago, AlJazira Capital said in a new report.

The decline is attributed primarily to an 22.4% year-on-year (YoY) drop in Brent crude prices to $65.9 per barrel in the quarter ended June 2025.

Revenue is estimated to reach SAR 418.3 billion, a 11.1% YoY decline. While upstream revenue will fall 9.2% QoQ, downstream income is expected to increase by 2.5% QoQ.

“We forecast the average realised crude oil price for Aramco in Q2 2025 at $66.7 per barrel,” AlJazira Capital said.

Aramco’s topline and earnings are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, with full-year revenue falling 4.3% to SAR 1,724 billion and net income slipping 3.9% to SAR 378 billion.

Average oil prices for 2025 are anticipated to be $69 per barrel, approximately 13% lower than the 2024 levels.

AlJazira Capital assigned an “Overweight” rating on Aramco, raising its target price to SAR 29.6 per share.
 
Based on its projections, Aramco is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4x and offers a dividend yield of 5.5%, the brokerage said.

(Editing by Seban Scaria seban.scaria@lseg.com )