London IRNA - Head of Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) Rosemary Hollis here Wednesday termed the British PrimeMinister Tony Blair`s statement in the Parliament on Iran as "use of diplomatic language."
Hollis, who heads the London-based international affairs institute, told IRNA in an interview that "Blair may have calculated that keeping the threat alive is different from giving up on diplomacy."
The British expert said, "One explanation I have thought of is that Blair who is the most confident of all British ministers is actually speaking not to decide, but to implement policy."
While reacting to Iran`s allegiance to the International Atomic Energy, she said, it is ultimately the only way".
She said, "Blair suggests that assuming that EU diplomacy is held by the threat hanging over Iran, then if it did not work out toward getting a solution with the Europeans, the penalty would be the use offorce by the Americans".
According to this expert "this is the whole story about the diplomatic game on Iran`s nuclear ambitions."
This expert said, "the parties are playing with fire because I can quite understand that Iran wants to know ultimately what Tehran would get, and that is why they are asking us to confess what we would ultimately be willing to give them in return."
"There must be some in Tehran who are arguing that if they push hard they might get the Americans to lift the sanctions and to recognize Iran," she said, adding "I am sure that there are certain Europeans who are playing the American card in this game."
She said, Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw will be genuinely appalled by the idea that "attacking Iran is in any sense only one of the options."
"This would be what Straw would be saying to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who cannot contemplate the use of force.
The other Europeans, too, believe the United States has to help us make a deal with Iran, although Blair could like to remain on the side of Americans, giving a message to Iran that the best the best thing to do is not to urge the Americans to resort to the ultimate weapon," she explained.
The expert predicted that it could be tempting to exert more pressure on Iran, that could be in a division of responsibility between the factions within the labor camp, represented by Straw and Blair.
"That scenario can be pursued with British foreign secretary going the Iranian way and Blair going the American way," she said. They would be thus explaining on the British policies with two different minds, both united ultimately in the decision making process," she said, adding "the two positions are not totally contradictory tough."
"Yet, the judgments behind those positions are very different. In other words, Jack Straw sees the danger and counterproductive effect of resorting to military force, whereas Blair may be judging that a serious threat might work more effectively," she added. "Putting it differently," the British expert said, "Blair can`t stand that there isn`t anything to do to prevent this (a US military attack against Iran - Iran`s access to the A-bomb) from happening while admitting it is too awful to contemplate about it. It is not something the British would do, keeping always in mind the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq. The British know that the Americans do not truly want to attack Iran but actually mean to destabilize the Islamic Republic, thinking that it will work to their benefit. I always thought since Iraq invasion if we take a lesson from history in terms of Blair`s statements in course of events, then we realize the warning signal is here: where the Americans intend to force the British Prime Minister to say something he would instead say that he understood why they did so and how to avoid the worst conditions. She said, "If one looks carefully one could see the signals sent ever since 2002, and that Britain is going to go with the US to most perilous missions."
The British analyst who is alerted by the signals, warns it is no wise to let Britain to go with the Americans into this situation. "Britain will this time say `we tried everything possible to avoid this but we failed and we understand why the Americans interpreted the situation in favor of launching an attack,` which is not condoning the use of force, it is not the same as abdicating it.
It is rather preparing the ground for correcting the course of events from the way hey have gone so far."
Blair`s statement in the Parliament sounds that Britain is trying to do all its best avoid the use of force, she concluded.
Blair on Wednesday said that the country will do everything possible to send right signals to Iran and that "Tehran indeed has to comply with its international obligations."
Blair in Parliament also said, "Personally, I see no such contemplation by the US and actually I am referring to what the US Vice President said the other day, when he made it quite clear that there is no such contemplation by America."
"I fully agree that there is indeed a serious issue with Iran and the nuclear weapon and its allegiance to the Atomic Energy Authority and what we are doing in Europe in concert with America and others is trying to make sure that Iran comes to compliance with its international obligations", he added.
But in an interview with the Financial Times, Blair sent conflicting signals by not ruling out an eventual US attack on Iran`s facilities when replying "Yes" to whether it may be theoretically the only way to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.
The British premier was also seen distancing himself from Jack Straw, who last year insisted that US military action was "inconceivable."
Straw last week, too, published a dossier on international efforts over the past two years to establish confidence whether Iran`s nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, in which he proposed a "negotiated solution" as "the best way forward."
The confusion on Britain`s policy towards Iran was intensified by European Minister Denis MacShane reverting back to voicing "serious concerns about Iran`s nuclear program still exist," in a written parliamentary answer published Wednesday while Straw was out of the country.
© IRNA 2005
