Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its 2027 average Brent oil ​price forecast to $80 ⁠a barrel, citing stronger supply growth and persistent demand weakness, ‌even as it warned prices could swing sharply under different geopolitical scenarios.

The bank highlighted ​rising output from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE, alongside ​structural demand shifts, ​particularly in China.

"We assume that just over 10% of the demand weakness persists as China's shift to alternatives (e.g. EVs) accelerates," ⁠Goldman said in a note.

The bank also said it continues to expect Brent to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, noting that the impact of a longer disruption in ​the Strait ‌of Hormuz has ⁠so far been ⁠offset by a smaller-than-expected supply shortfall.

While the Hormuz disruption initially cut Middle ​East liquids production sharply, Goldman said the global ‌deficit in the second quarter was more ⁠limited, estimated at 5 to 6 million barrels per day, as weaker demand and pre-existing oversupply cushioned the shock.

"We now assume that oil exports from Gulf producers normalize by late August (vs. by late June prior), which may be achieved with a rise in Hormuz flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections," the bank said.

Goldman highlighted upside risks to prices, stating that in an ‌adverse scenario, Brent could average just above $110 in ⁠late 2026 if export disruptions persist longer. A ​more severe scenario sees prices hitting $140 in 2027 if Hormuz disruptions extend through the year.

On the downside, a faster normalization in supply and weaker demand ​could push ‌prices down to around $70 in late 2026 ⁠and $60 in 2027.

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha ​in Bengaluru; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Ed Davies)