Citibank makes the astonishing forecast that Saudi Arabia could turn into an oil importer in less than two decades.
September 6, 2012
06 September 2012 For the second time in less than a year, an analyst has raised the prospect of Saudi Arabia turning into an oil importer within a few decades.
This is an astonishing prediction for a country that is the Arabian Gulf's largest producer and exporter of oil, with the largest spare capacity in the world.
But how can the Kingdom be toppled from its enviable position and turn into an oil importer in less than two decades?
"Saudi Arabia is the Gulf's largest oil producer (11.1million barrels per day) and exporter (7.7-million bpd). It also consumes 25% of its production," notes Heidy Rahman, analyst at Citigroup.
"Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrial nations. Oil and its derivatives account for 50% of Saudi's electricity production, used mostly (50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by 8% per year. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030."
Late last year, UK-based Chatham House suggested that Saudi Arabia could turn into a net oil importer by 2038 if its domestic energy consumption continues to grow unchecked.
