|10 September, 2019

Brexit: Julius Baer cuts chances of Halloween no-deal Brexit to 10%

In the longer term, the fate of Brexit will be decided in a general election

The logo of Swiss private bank Julius Baer is pictured on the company's branch in Lausanne November 13, 2014.

The logo of Swiss private bank Julius Baer is pictured on the company's branch in Lausanne November 13, 2014.

REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

LONDON - Julius Baer has cut its estimate that the probability Britain will crash out of the European Union on Oct. 31 to 10% and sees the chance of a delay to the process at 75%, it said on Tuesday as the options left to Prime Minister Boris Johnson dwindled.

In the longer term, the fate of Brexit will be decided in a general election, said Patrik Lang, head of equities research at Julius Baer, noting there is a chance that the Conservative Party will become the largest party, but not necessarily win a majority.

As a result, he sees the longer term probability of a hard Brexit at 35%, with the chances of a deal with Brussels being struck at 50%.

(Reporting by Josephine Mason, editin by Karin Strohecker) ((Josephine.Mason@thomsonreuters.com; +44 207 542 7695; Reuters Messaging: josephine.mason.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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