The Australian and New Zealand dollars took a breather from recent gains on Wednesday, stopping short of breaking above key resistance levels, with a quiet market ahead of a major U.S. holiday failing to provide any impetus.
The Aussie was little changed at $0.6553, having stalled at the 200-day moving average of $0.6590 overnight where sellers piled in. It, however, still up 4.5% from the low in October and the technical outlook looks bullish.
The kiwi dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6041, after meeting resistance at $0.6085 overnight. Again, it was up almost 5% from the recent low in October and perched near a three-month top.
The foreign exchange market is quiet ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The dollar bounced off its 2-1/2 moth low as traders judged that the Federal Reserve minutes from November policy meeting did not contain much new information.
Interest rate futures markets still see almost no chance the Fed hikes again and price about 90 basis points (bps) of rate cuts through 2024, with a 30% chance they begin as soon as March.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock will be giving a speech titled A Monetary Policy Fit for the Future at 7:30 pm, and markets will be looking to see if the central bank still has one more rate hike left in the bag next year.
"We're really not there yet to call the end of the tightening cycle (for the RBA)," said Saxo Asia Pacific market strategist Charu Chanana.
"There is some scope for that hawkish repricing to continue if data continues to be stronger. That could support the AUD, as well as how the yuan is moving, so there's still some scope for AUD to get back to that 200-day moving average and potentially above."
Australian bonds rallied a little, tracking their Treasury counterparts. Benchmark ten-year government bond yields slipped 6 bps to 4.451%, while three-year yields eased 4 bps to 4.085%, the lowest since mid-October. (Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Kim Coghill)