It became customary or rather a modern fashion that at the outbreak of each new year, our horoscope researchers, predictors and voyeurs will occupy the TV screens and pages on newspapers and magazines to enchant our curiosity by foreseeing our future - either according to our horoscope signs date and time of birth and their relation to the movement of the stars in the sky or by intuition and picture vision.
Whilst Michel Hayek and Maguy Farah, each on his/her own methods, or studies or visual pictures could predict to us the chronological events of the up coming year.
Why cannot I, who outlived several decades of experience and on the basis of the prevailing facts which are encountering us from all sides in this troubled and boiling Middle East - forecast the upcoming events in Lebanon and the region??
This tiny territory of Lebanon, which is supposed to be a piece of paradise on earth - is being envied by its neighbors and very far peoples alike since its creation and witnessed multiple invasions of different civilizations - all kept their traces and the date of their departures from our soil on Nahr El Kalb stones or engraved their influence in our hearts and blood and lately the Turks in 1918 (after 400 years of occupation), the French mandate 1918 - 1946 and the last the Syrian occupation from 1976 up to April 2005, and from that date on, Lebanon is being subject to the most violent interferences of Iranian-Syrian currents counter acted by the majority of world powers..
In modern history, foreign interferences other than direct occupation take different forms, strategies, financing, aids, spiritual ties, cultural ties, political doctrines, fundamental religious doctrines, etc... in order to implement their goals and policies.
Lebanon is now in the midst of all those forces and each endeavoring to snatch a piece of it to ensure dominance or fight the other forces, using Lebanon as a battle field.
If we try to disengage ourselves from our direct political alignments and look down at the geographical map of Lebanon and the Middle East.
What do we see??
Globally, we notice that this Middle East is in turmoil:
- Series of assassinations and attempts in Lebanon touching the political parties that oppose the Syrian-Iranian line.
- July 12, 2006 war in Lebanon - Hezbollah which ignited and fought courageously the war against Israel is now centered in Beirut District demonstrating and sieging the restaurants, the touristic and trading center of Beirut and hindering the normal business activities of their own country, and the Council of Ministers.
- Civil war in Iraq between religious factions under the foreign control of American and multinational troops.
- In Palestine, in addition to the Israeli-Palestinian war, which started in 1948, it is now turning into an internal fighting between Fath & Hamas.
The major players, the cake-eaters and victims in the region are well identified and the struggle is fierceful, and seems uncontrollable and endless.
Though the American administration with all its troops and might in Iraq cannot claim that they have won the war in Iraq or could restructure or bring democracy to the M.E the way they have planned it and in spite of all the losses in lives and money does not seem ready to run away from the battle field or give it away to the "Iran - Syrian" pact who in turn are aiming at establishing their own control over the Middle East.
The resolution 1737 of the United Nations Council which imposed sanctions on the Iranian nuclear activities was unanimously approved by all UN Council members. This proves that there is a secrete entente among USA, Russia, China and Europe that the Middle East and Gulf countries should remain stable and peaceful.
Furthermore, the US has already taken steps to share with the International powers, the wealth of the region in establishing permanent business and political ties.
The new developments which are taking place currently contribute to our conviction that the overwhelming picture could be resumed and understood by the following factual events:
1 - The Russian insist on playing a major role in the Middle East and have always dreamt to have access to the warm water - and will never allow the Iranians to inherit the Americans in the region. After all, it is the next door neighbor and the strongest force in the region - and by all means will never allow Tehran to acquire the nuclear bomb. Therefore its support for the UN resolution 1737 was clear and solid.
The soon awaited visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia rings a bell and confirms the important role of Saudi Arabia in the International arena as an Islamic and Arab force - and this visit would not have been possible without the secret consent and the approval of the US administration.
2 - Even China along with the other members of the UN Council voted for the UN Resolution 1737 in contribution to their future role in the region.
3 - The Turkish Prime Minister's visit to Syria and Lebanon and its contribution in the Uniful force in South Lebanon - indicate the role that Turkey is aiming to play in confronting to the Syrian - Iranian expansion in the region.
In other words, all members of the UN Council including Russia & China are now with the Western block, headed by USA including Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan are forming a firm and solid block against the expansion of the Iranian revolutionary principles extending from Iraq to Syria to Palestine thru Hamas and to Lebanon thru Hezbollah - and later thru the Shiite minorities in the Gulf States, hoping to revive a Persian Empire that could stretch all over this rich oil peninsula, militarily, economically and spiritually.
This Persian dream seems too big to be swallowed in the presence of such giant powers - nevertheless this dream has been carefully and patiently worked out with the same spirit of knitting a Persian carpet. Unfortunately, not all dreams come true... and soon Iran will realize the facts of life and balance of powers that govern the world.
Due to this critical and dangerous situation in the region - the countries in the region are likewise divided between those two blocks and Lebanon is now living this unveiled dilemma with clear cut divisions since the assassination of late P.M Harriri and after July 12, 2006 war.
Hezbollah being a Lebanese political religious party, representing a major part of the Shiite community; financed, trained and supported by the Syrian Iranian regime, conducted the war against Israel for 34 days and as a result, the country has been inflicted by 1200 lives, 4400 injured and destruction of more than 15000 dwellings and losses exceeding US$15 billion.
The UN resolution 1701 put an end to the July war but since then the activities of Hezbollah shifted from the South border to camping and living in B.C.D with continuous non-stop peaceful demonstrations thus hindering the normal economical and business functions of the Central City and of the Council of Ministers demanding the change of the political structure in compliance with the Syrian-Iranian objectives and to resist the formation of the International Tribunal designed to investigate the murderer of Late P.M. Harriri.
The situation is deplorable and both Lebanese factions are sticking to their standings and yet no light is emanating from the dark tunnel despite the hundreds of tents erected around the Grand Serail, Riad El Solh place and Bourj area, since Dec. 1, 06.
- The 14th of March group which was formed after the assassination of P.M Harriri called the period following the withdrawal of Syrian troops (April 26, 2005) as the second Independence era of Lebanon, characterizing it by Freedom, Independence, Sovereignty of the territory and Democracy.
But the 8th of March group, who remained faithful to the Syrian-Iranian line resisted the new era by putting pokes in the wheel of government activities.
The real salvation lies in believing in Lebanon as a final entity as it is stipulated in the Taef constitution (Lebanon come FIRST) and not second to any other country or group, and by maintaining good relations and ties with all neighboring and International countries based on equality and democratic principles.
- Contrary to the Lebanese general policy of compromise, our politicians and for the first time are taking rigid positions in compliance with the seriousness of the situation that the international and regional players are dictating.
- The silent majority of the Lebanese society as usual is paying the bills of wars, destruction, economical crisis, social crisis, colossal national debt which reached the US$ 40 billion level.
While Hezbollah on the other hand is getting direct finance from Iran and enjoying an organized State within the State, fully financed and armed by Iran to the extent of US$ 400 million per year or more.
At this stage of tragedy a "Shock remedy" is needed to the Lebanese society which did not learn yet from the painful lessons which it has already endured during its modern history since its first independence in 1943. The Lebanese ought to stand against all imported evils and begin building our beautiful country with our local and regional investors who share with us the same love to Lebanon - with the same Lebanese spirit, love, courage, tolerance, openness entrepreneurship that our immigrant fathers and sons built and still building success on the four corners of the planet.
The current Lebanese crisis is quite complex due to the international and regional power involvements. As soon as the tension ceases among the outside powers, the Lebanese politicians will soon find a reconciliation formula that will satisfy all concerned groups.
The solution might be delayed a bit by few months further due to the many cooks but problems like civil war are extremely remote because the Lebanese have learned the hardway from their previous wars - became "more mature, and immuned" though limited incidents or small skirmishes might still take place but will not jeopardize a near future compromise.
Lebanon and without much poetry, has experienced thru its 6000 years of history, numerous invasions, wars, crisis of all kinds - this is our fate being at cross roads and live always at risk and on the edge.
Once the storm turns to be silent, Lebanon will turn likewise to be an outstanding and beautiful destination to live in again and again... and a necessity to remain as a model where civilizations of various religious and sects have been co-existing, and a modern proto-type for countries of different confessions, races etc...
The real estate market is still and would continue booming and no such crisis will have any negative impact on the price or rentability - Some delay ...... yes ... but no tragical outburst leading to any collapse of the institutions or prices.
Final Prophecy:
Lebanon future is bright - the International Tribunal will be formed to bring the criminals to justice; the Paris III will soon inject significant funds to restore the economical monetary and financial situations and with the unprecedented full support of the brotherly Arab States and International Community - Lebanon will soon recover and regain its democracy, prosperity, peace, freedom and growth.
-Ends-
By Joseph Safar
Press Release 2007