Wars are expensive and destructive, affecting long-term economic growth through population changes, fewer investments, and worsening educational outcomes.

Global gross domestic product (GDP) would have been 12% higher on average had there been no violent conflict since 1970, according to a report published in the Journal of Peace Research.

Armed conflict is the top risk in 2025, a World Economic Forum (WEF) survey released ahead of the Annual Meeting in Davos showed, a reminder of the deepening global fragmentation.

Nearly one in four of the more than 900 experts surveyed across academia, business and policymaking ranked conflict, including wars and terrorism, as the most severe risk to economic growth for the year ahead.

“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape,” WEF Managing Director Mirek Dusek said in comments accompanying the report. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.”

The threat of misinformation and disinformation was ranked as the most severe global risk over the next two years, according to the survey, the same ranking as in 2024.

As for conflicts, the statistics are grim, according to the WEF survey.

There were close to 60 armed conflicts raging in 2023, the highest number ever recorded. Civilian fatalities surged by more than 30% between 2023 and 2024, mostly due to escalating armed conflicts in the Middle East, North Africa and Eastern Europe.

In the past year, at least 200,000 people were killed and over 120mn are currently forcibly displaced – more than half of them within their own borders.

Today, roughly 2bn people – one quarter of humanity – live in conflict-affected countries. Meanwhile, global military spending has skyrocketed, reaching an all-time high of more than $2.4tn in 2023.

In many of the Middle Eastern countries, poverty is projected to remain elevated, partly reflecting higher inflation, especially for food, according to a World Bank report last week.

Risks to the outlook for the region are tilted to the downside. An escalation of armed conflicts in the region and heightened policy uncertainty, particularly unexpected global policy shifts, are major downside risks, the World Bank said.

Global growth is expected to increase slightly this year while remaining stuck below its pre-pandemic average, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, flagging the growing economic divide between the United States and European countries.

In an update to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said it expects global growth to hit 3.3% this year, up 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast in October, and to remain at 3.3% in 2026.

But the proportion of the world engulfed by conflict has grown 65% – equivalent to nearly double the size of India – over the past three years, according to a new report.

Ukraine, Myanmar, the Middle East and a “conflict corridor” around Africa’s Sahel region have seen wars and unrest spread and intensify since 2021, according to the latest Conflict Intensity Index (CII), published by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft early last month.
While there was a lull in the levels of conflict globally during the Covid-19 pandemic, experts say there has been a rising trend of violence for at least a decade, while many longstanding crises continue unabated.

Angela Rosales, CEO of SOS Children’s Villages International, which helps children separated from their families, said 470mn children worldwide are affected by wars, including in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon, with serious impacts that go beyond death and injury.

“Children in conflict-affected areas are at risk of losing family care if their homes are destroyed, parents are killed or if they become separated when fleeing violence,” she said. They are especially vulnerable to exploitation, enslavement, trafficking and abuse.”

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