Johnsons protracted leadership crisis harming the UK

When a “defense” to accusations of another lockdown-breaking party is that you were “ambushed with a cake,” comedians and satirists need to start looking for alternative employment.

Yes, this was the much-lampooned line offered up by a close parliamentary friend of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The cake in question was adorned with a Union Jack for the occasion of Johnson’s 56th birthday back in June 2020, when indoor gatherings were banned throughout the country. The alleged party was in the Cabinet Room at 10 Downing Street, at the heart of the British government.

Johnson’s future may not be in so much doubt if this were the sole offense in question. For days, the country has been waiting for the publication of a report authored by Sue Gray, the senior civil servant tasked with investigating illegal parties at Downing Street, which now number 16 held between May 2020 and April 2021. The “bring your own booze” event of May 2020 still looks to be the most serious breach of lockdown rules. The anger generated is off the charts, as every family in the country was making sacrifices at the time, not seeing loved ones, not going to funerals and canceling weddings.

This dangerous image persists. While the nation made such sacrifices and adhered to the rules, the center of government ignored them.

Frustratingly for those who want to move on, Gray has yet to publish her full report, even though we understand the ink has dried. She did on Monday publish an update, which revealed little except that she considered there had been serious failures in Downing Street. The Metropolitan Police had suddenly intervened last week and announced that it was examining the issue. Initially, the police — to the consternation of many — had refused to open an investigation. The Met said that Gray can publish, but with only “minimal” details of the events it is also investigating. The sound of the rug being pulled from beneath her could be heard all around Westminster. This is why she opted for a limited update. The opposition tore into the police, questioning its independence. Still, a British prime minister and his colleagues are under police investigation, which is never a good look.

So far, seven of Johnson’s MPs have openly called for him to go. One senior Tory has even announced he would stand in the event of a leadership election.

Johnson has transitioned from bluster to quasi-apologetic to bullish banter. Unfortunate junior ministers are dispatched to the media wolves to try to defend the indefensible. He does not give the appearance of a man thinking of exiting the stage to finish his magnum opus on Shakespeare.

The tragicomedy goes on and on, well beyond five acts. Other subplots have opened up. Former Tory minister Nusrat Ghani, the first female Muslim to speak from the Commons dispatch box, revealed she was told by the Tory chief whip that her “Muslimness” had been raised as a problem in Downing Street. This was denied, but Johnson was compelled to announce an inquiry. Remember that the Conservative Party has been blighted by accusations of Islamophobia. It was also a reminder of the times Johnson himself was accused of it after comparing Muslim women wearing burqas to letter boxes.

Johnson has mounted his self-styled “Operation Save Big Dog,” but it is the saving of other pets that could present yet another challenge to his future. Did he personally intervene to ensure that the British Army evacuated more than 150 rescued cats and dogs being cared for by a charity in Afghanistan at a time when Afghans were holding on to the wings of airplanes in a desperate attempt to get out of Kabul? Johnson dismissed all the allegations — even though they were recorded on official documents — as “total rhubarb.” His allies will be crossing their fingers that this is true and that pets were not put before people.

We have seen all this with Johnson before. Allegations are made, which he airily dismisses in a typically jocular fashion, only for harder evidence to turn up. It is this initial instinctive response that often augurs trouble further down the road.

All of this will be in the thinking of those who can choose to boot him out of office: Conservative MPs. In public, most of them say little, but in private they are deeply worried. Reassurances from the prime minister have little value anymore and many fear further revelations or indiscretions splashed across the front pages.

Can Johnson get away with it all? Quite possibly, given his record. But if he does, he has to up his game. He is typically chaotic and lacks focus, but the adrenaline of survival mode has kicked in. He gave an above-average performance in outlining the government’s approach to Ukraine, where he at least appeared on top of the detail and confident of the strategy. But he will need to rehash the machine around him. For someone like Johnson to function, he needs a robust chief of staff who can steer him away from the rocks. He will have to stop surrounding himself with loyal stooges and opt for confident operators prepared to speak truth to power, in this case him. He will have to reach out to all the political fiefdoms within his own party and be more inclusive.

This is not quite the zombie government some have depicted. Johnson is pushing back. The Conservative strategy is to imbue the situation with energy and policy announcements, from moving toward defunding the BBC to using the Royal Navy to handle migrants in the English Channel.

Most of those who know Johnson do not believe he can change. After all, they point out he has always been like this. The opposition parties may call for a swift defenestration of the prime minister, but actually a slow, lingering death that seriously damages the Conservative brand might suit them more.

Dragging this out is definitely not in the British national interest, but it might be in Johnson’s. The Teflon shell remains, but it is cracked and far from intact. He looks fatigued but, as witty wags point out, it is unclear whether this is from stress, insomnia or too much partying.

The UK is facing plenty of other crises that a responsible government should be concerned with. The cost of living is spiraling, COVID-19 remains a considerable challenge and, perhaps most alarmingly, a major war over Ukraine is looking ever more possible. Unquestionably, one needs a major government to be focused and in charge. Who knows when that will be the case?

• Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU). Twitter: @Doylech