South Africa's Exxaro Resources said on Thursday ​its coal exports could rise by up to 12% this year helped by improved freight ​rail performance, ​as energy supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict push coal prices higher.

Energy prices have jumped since the U.S. and Israel's war ⁠on Iran began on February 28, following attacks on vital energy infrastructure and freight disruptions.

Exxaro said its coal exports could reach 8 million metric tons in 2026, up from 7.1 million tons last year, but warned the conflict posed ​a material ‌threat to global ⁠energy security.

"Any prolonged ⁠or broader regional destabilisation would disrupt energy security and bulk shipping, tightening global oil and ​liquefied natural gas supply," it said in a ‌results statement.

"This would likely increase reliance on alternative fuels, supporting ⁠higher thermal coal demand and prices," it added.

The benchmark price for South African coal exports, API4, has climbed to $118 per ton, from the $90-per-ton average realised by Exxaro in 2025.

Exxaro, which ships to India, Japan, Pakistan, Europe and Africa, recorded a 2% rise in exports in 2025, as South Africa's freight rail performance continues to improve.

Miners including Exxaro have been helping state-owned logistics firm Transnet raise its minerals hauling capacity after years of cable theft ‌and vandalism.

Exxaro said 2025 profit rose 8% as cost ⁠controls helped offset weaker coal prices. Headline earnings per ​share came in at 32.47 rand ($1.91), up from 30.16 rand a year earlier.

The diversified miner declared a final dividend of 10 rand per share, up 15% ​from the previous ‌payout and taking total shareholder returns for the year ⁠to 6.3 billion rand.

($1 = 16.9595 ​rand)