Unaddressed inefficiencies and political friction have continued to undermine trade between Rwanda and Tanzania, as more Rwandan traders and transporters pivot to Mombasa port despite the longer distance and higher costs.

The effects of the recent election-induced riots in Dar es Salaam still linger, with cargo trucks in limbo for two weeks now, leading to a scarcity of a number of consumer goods in the Rwandan market and a consequent spike in prices.

For some Rwandan traders, the post-election riots, in which some trucks being burned and others looted, were the last straw, and they finally made the decision to abandon the Central Corridor, while had already changed to the Northern Corridor last year.

Derrick Baguma, a cargo transport operator based in Kigali told The EastAfrican that there has been a growing number of traders and transporters opting for Mombasa starting last year, due to “a lot of inefficiencies and bureaucracy associated with the Dar es Salaam port, which is not the case for Mombasa.”“In Mombasa, the ship docks when it already has unloading space and machines there are ready to offload. You can get your cargo offloaded and delivered the same day. In Dar es Salaam, it can even take two weeks. Kenyans use technology at the port, which has increased efficiencies,” he said.

The distance from Mombasa to Kigali is 1,700km, longer than the 1,300km from Dar es Salaam, but Rwandan traders are increasingly shifting from the Central Corridor, through which 80 percent of Rwandan cargo has gone for the longest time.

The biggest losses as a result of post-election blockades were incurred by transporters of perishables, construction materials and petroleum products, with reports indicating that at least three Rwanda-bound rigs were looted near the Namanga border, with goods valued at about $200,000 lost.

At least two Rwandan-flagged trucks hauling fuel from Dar es Salaam were burned down near the port on October 30, according to Rwanda's Ministry of Trade and the East African Business Council.

This contributed to a 57 percent drop in bond turnover and forced rerouting, costing Rwandan firms millions in delays, with more than 50 Rwandan trucks stranded, about15 percent of them reporting damage or losses, according to the Rwanda Transporters Association.

Now, Rwandan importers have shifted up to 60 percent of fuel imports to Mombasa, with reports indicating that Rwandan importers rerouted cargo worth more than $300 million to Mombasa in Q4 2025.

The move aligns with its broader strategy to reduce reliance on a single route, amid regional tensions and logistical risks, but the problem seems deeper than the pivoting of cargo transport.

Trade between Rwanda and Tanzania has been declining, with recent data from the Rwanda Institute of Statistics showing that imports from Tanzania fell to $52.91 million in September 2025, from $92.64 million in September 2024—a decline of over 40 percent year-on-year.

Fall in importsThis fall in imports from Tanzania was 25.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025, compared with the previous year.

Data shows that between 2022 and 2023, Tanzania accounted for 13.6 percent of Rwanda's total imports worth $567.86 million.

Although Rwanda’s exports to Tanzania remain relatively stable or less affected based on available data, a silent trade war hinged on protectionist tendencies has been brewing.

Tanzania’s introduction of a prohibitive Tsh2,000 ($0.73) per kilogramme of milk fee in 2024, a 1,233 percent increase from Tsh150 ($0.055), severely affected milk imports from Rwanda, making Rwandan milk uncompetitive, with exporters saying the levy "is more than the cost of the milk itself."Tanzania’s strict enforcement of its 2018 Animal Diseases and Animal Products Movement Control Regulations in 2024, has been cited as a non-tariff barrier, as no Rwandan company has successfully applied for or received an export licence from the Tanzania Dairy Board.

Analysts say despite both countries exhibiting no open hostilities toward each other, the recent trade and geopolitical developments point to an undertow of bilateral friction between Kigali and Dodoma, which needs to be addressed through existing bilateral channels before it escalates into an open fallout.

Regulatory agencies are accused of slow or selective approvals, similar to disputes between Kenya and Uganda, despite a January 2024 memorandum of understanding between the two countries aimed at facilitating dairy trade.

Rwanda and Tanzania found themselves on a collision course in the DR Congo conflict early this year, with Tanzania contributing troops to the SADC mission to fight alongside Congolese soldiers, which rubbed Rwanda the wrong way.

Kigali accused Tanzania and other troop-contributing countries of collaborating with FDLR, a genocidal force bent on invading Rwanda.

Although this strained Rwanda-Tanzania relations, it did not severely damage bilateral cooperation between the two neighbouring EAC partner states.

There has not been any public congratulatory message by Rwandan authorities to President Samia Suluhu Hassan after her controversial presidential election victory, as the norm when other regional leaders win elections.

However, highly placed sources told The EastAfrican that Rwanda sent a congratulatory message to President Samia, through diplomatic channels, a departure from the usual congratulatory messages normally shared on official social media channels.

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