Rwanda is looking at a windfall in gold receipts this year, thanks to a significant spike in gold prices on the international market.

Gold prices have rallied in the past few months, surging past the $4,000-per-ounce mark in October to a record high of $4,381, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Rwanda exports its domestically mined gold, and refines and re-exports a significant amount of gold from other countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that by the end of year, gold might account for a half of Rwanda’s export revenue, fetching more than $2 billion in revenues, a feat that is within sight, given the growth in market prices.

By December 4, 2025, gold was trading around $4,180-$4,242 per ounce, up 58 percent year-on-year, signalling a windfall for exporters like Rwanda, which is highly expected to best its 2024 gold receipts which stood at $1.5 billion.

The deal emphasises joint economic frameworks for minerals, including traceability, governance, and shared value chains.

Rwanda, with its refining infrastructure, could formally process Congolese gold, and other minerals under transparent, legalised arrangements, which would increase volumes through Kigali refineries and boost export revenues, while attracting investment.

This year, Rwanda gained a new market for critical minerals, including gold, in the USA, even benefiting from a tax exemption Washington gave global exporters of minerals such as graphite, gold, tungsten and uranium, as it stocks up these minerals needed in critical sectors like energy, aerospace, defence, electronics, and advanced manufacturing, as it pulls out all the stops to close the competitive disadvantage it suffers with China, which dominates the critical and rare-earth minerals sector.

During the just concluded Mining Week in Kigali, Itzhak Fisher, Rwanda Mining, Gas and Petroleum Board (RMB) chairperson, said that Rwanda continues to be a responsible and reliable source of critical minerals, including gold.“These resources position Rwanda as a strategic partner in an evolving global mineral economy," Fisher said.

Reports indicate that Rwanda exported up to 19.4 tonnes of gold in 2024, fetching up to $1.5 billion, but its locally produced gold volumes are significantly below that figure.

Analysts say that at current prices, even a modest volume increase could push 2025 export values well above last year’s mark, which is expected to boost the country’s economic growth trajectory.

The National Bank of Rwanda began diversifying its foreign reserves into gold late this year, enhancing financial stability amid inflation risks, forecast at 7.1 percent for 2025.

The central bank governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye said in November that “returns have exceeded expectations,” though the exact holdings remain undisclosed.

Besides serving as a hedge for Rwanda’s economy against inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical risks, investing in gold will reduce Rwanda's reliance on traditional assets like US treasuries or other foreign securities, preserving capital during global volatility and supporting the Rwandan franc's stability.

By purchasing high-purity gold, the central bank will also create guaranteed local demand, encouraging investment in refining and higher export values—leading to further revenue growth in the sector.

In Q2 of 2025, mining and quarrying grew by 31 percent, providing significant support to the overall industry sector's 7 percent growth.

The mining sector contributes about 3 percent directly to Rwanda's GDP, but has a larger indirect impact via export revenues of around $1.75 billion in 2024.

With its continued strong performance in 2025, also helping with trade balance improvements, and diversifying the economy beyond agriculture.

The gold sub-sector seems to be steady on a path to achieving its targets of fetching up to $2.2 billion in mineral export revenues by 2029.

The early months of the year spelt a gloomy outlook for Rwanda’s gold exports after the European Union sanctioned the Gasabo Gold Refinery vide Council Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/509, along with then Rwanda Mining, Gas and Petroleum Board chief executive Francis Kamanzi, for allegedly illegally importing and transiting gold extracted from AFC/M23 rebel-controlled regions in the DRC.

Among the pains the sanctions would inflict to the refinery, as outlined in the sanctioning document, would be asset freezes, travel bans, and prohibitions on EU citizens or companies providing funds, financial assets, or economic resources to the listed entity.

But, in an interesting turn of events, a week ago, President Paul Kagame said Gasabo was never sanctioned and continues to operate.“There’s nothing frozen. What was sanctioned are the individuals who led that refinery. The refinery operates. Rwanda is selling its gold to the market, whether EU, the Gulf region or United States,” the President told journalists in Kigali.

He defended Kigali against claims of gold smuggling, saying that it legitimately mines and trades in Rwandan gold.

He framed the international scrutiny as rooted in politics and ill will rather than evidence of wrongdoing.

He emphasised that Rwanda has gold deposits.“Artisanal mining is still ongoing, but we are also doing deep exploration. We have gold in Nyamagabe near Nyungwe. Then more gold comes from the region, from Congo as it goes through Burundi or Uganda,” the head of state said.

He acknowledged the “impact” of the gold prices on the local economy.

Rwanda signed a $900 million deal with the EU in February 2024, which partly came to enable the bloc diversify sources of green-transition minerals away from China.

It was primed to enhance Rwanda’s position in global supply chains and attract further investment.

Although the mineral deal is still in place, it has been set back by geopolitical challenges, amid the DRC-Rwanda dispute over the war in the eastern region.

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