The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will record its fastest growth in more than a decade in 2026 and 2027, revising its growth forecast upward to 4.4 per cent for both years.

The World Bank noted that Nigeria’s growth rose to 4.2 per cent in 2025, driven largely by expansion in the services sector, particularly finance, as well as information and communication technology.

It said, “In Nigeria, growth edged up to 4.2 percent in 2025. The increase was driven by expansion in the services sector— especially the finance and information and communication technology sectors—a modest recovery in agriculture, and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.”

It noted that growth is expected to strengthen further to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, marking the fastest pace in over a decade, supported by continued expansion in services, a rebound in agricultural output, and modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities.

The report added that ongoing economic reforms, including improvements in the tax system and the continuation of prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity, improve investor confidence, and further reduce inflation.

It also stated that higher oil output is expected to help offset lower international oil prices, boosting fiscal revenues and strengthening Nigeria’s external balance.

“Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade. This further firming of growth is anticipated to be underpinned by a continued expansion in services and a rebound in agricultural output, with a modest acceleration in the non-oil industry. Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity. They are also expected to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further.

“Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance.”

On the regional outlook, the World Bank projected that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will strengthen to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by reforms in some major economies, solid domestic investment growth, and easing inflation.

However, the report warned that despite the improved outlook, per capita income growth across the region remains insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty or create enough jobs, while risks such as weaker external demand, lower commodity prices, political instability, and reduced donor support could weigh on growth prospects.

“Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is forecast to firm to 4.3 percent in 2026, supported by ongoing reforms in some large economies, solid domestic investment growth, and a continued easing of inflation. In many economies, fiscal consolidation efforts are being prompted by the narrowing of fiscal space resulting from cuts to official development assistance, elevated government debt, and higher debt-servicing costs.

“Despite the improved growth outlook, per capita income gains will remain inadequate for significant progress in reducing extreme poverty and boosting job creation. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Weaker-than-expected external demand, lower commodity prices, increased regional political instability, and worsening conflict could dent growth prospects. Further declines in donor support could heighten the vulnerability of SSA economies to shocks, including public health risks and natural disasters.”

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