Africa’s sovereign borrowing is expected to hit a record $155 billion in 2026, amid a growing debt crisis and persistent fiscal financing needs across the continent.

According to new estimates released by S&P Global Ratings, the projected increase from $140 billion recorded in 2025 reflects the need to refinance maturing obligations while continuing to fund budget deficits and development priorities, a dual challenge facing African governments.

The report also says that Africa’s sovereign commercial debt is projected to exceed $1.2 trillion by 2026, equivalent to 45% of the continent’s GDP, including short-term liabilities, explaining that this trajectory signals a steady expansion in Africa’s debt profile, even as policymakers attempt to balance growth ambitions with fiscal sustainability.

However, analysts noted that the rise is due to both refinancing pressures and new borrowing needs, showing Africa’s ongoing financing gap is a structural issue.

According to reports, borrowing levels in African countries remain relatively low compared with global peers, with a median annual issuance of $1.5 billion across 27 rated African countries, reflecting smaller economies and reliance on aid.

Continuing, such concessional funding has played a stabilising role by reducing dependence on more expensive commercial debt and moderating overall debt servicing costs. However, structural constraints continue to limit access to affordable financing.

According to S&P Global Ratings, African issuers face persistently higher borrowing costs in international capital markets, partly due to a narrow and specialised investor base. At the same time, underdeveloped domestic financial markets limit the availability of local funding options, leaving many governments exposed to shifts in global liquidity and investor sentiment.

S&P Global Ratings reports that these vulnerabilities have reinforced a cautious approach to commercial borrowing, even as fiscal demands rise. Nevertheless, some of the continent’s largest economies are expected to increase issuance significantly in the coming year.

According to reports, Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana are expected to lead the borrowing growth in 2026. In Nigeria and Angola, election-related spending will likely increase financing needs, while oil revenue and tax reforms might not meet expectations.

The report also noted that Ghana is expected to shift from fiscal consolidation toward renewed capital investment following austerity measures implemented in 2025. This shift reflects a trend among African economies seeking to revive growth through infrastructure spending, even as debt burdens rise.

S&P Global Ratings’ earlier assessment further highlights Nigeria’s significant external debt servicing obligations in 2026, stating that Africa’s total external debt repayments are expected to hit $90 billion, adding to refinancing pressures.

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