Race in Baabda could prove tight and pivotal

04 June 2009

BAABDA: The road descending from the presidential palace to Beirut's southern suburbs is dotted with competing campaign billboards - a strong indication of Baabda's importance in Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections. Stretching from the mountains to the sea, Baabda is one of the country's most heterogeneous areas. It houses both the President's residence, reserved for a Maronite Christian, and the Dahiyeh, the nerve center for the Lebanese Shiite movement Hizbullah.

Baabda has over 145,000 registered voters, according to Interior Ministry figures, and its six parliamentary seats are allocated according to the district's three largest confessional groups, with three deputyships for the Maronites, two for the Shiites and one for the Druze.

"It's an interesting and curious little district," said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, noting that Baabda has high numbers of Maronites, Shiites and Druze, but also a significant Sunni vote.

Sunnis and Greek Orthodox, with just below and above 10,000 registered voters respectively, are the district's largest unrepresented confessions.

However, Baabda's unique character has not been lost on its candidates.

"Baabda is a smaller version of Lebanon; you have all confessions and parties," Salah Honein, an independent Maronite candidate on the March 14-Independent list, told The Daily Star.

Alain Aoun, a Maronite candidate running on the opposition list, also noted the district's distinctive quality, calling Baabda both "a sample" and "the center" of Lebanon.

In elections past, Baabda has been paired with neighboring Aley, which with its majority Druze population influenced the list-voting in the district.

In 2005, a quadripartite electoral alliance between Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Saad Hariri's Future Movement, March 14 Christians and Hizbullah won all the district's seats with just over 50 percent of the vote. Running outside of the alliance, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader and former Army commander Michel Aoun saw his list finish with almost half of the vote but no seats.

Two of the candidates elected in 2005 has since died - Edmond Naim, from March 14's Lebanese Forces, of natural causes, and Antoine Ghanem, from March 14's Phalange party, in a 2007 assassination.

Naim's seat was filled by consensus candidate Pierre Dakache, but Ghanem's seat remains vacant and, according to polling, could be picked up by the opposition.

Baabda's history could also affect the vote. In October 1990, Michel Aoun, then prime minister of East Beirut, staged his last stand against Syrian occupation in Baabda. For Aoun, who escaped to France during the siege and only returned in 2005, winning seats in the only large Christian district he lost in 2005 is essential.

Now that the Baabda-Aley district has been divided in two and Aoun is allied with Hizbullah in the opposition, analysts are predicting the FPM will make gains.

According to Ambassador Abdullah Bou Habib, executive director of the Issam Fares Center for Lebanon, Aoun's candidates have a slim advantage.

"The non-Christian vote favors Aoun slightly," he said, in reference to the district's large Shiite population. "Therefore if Aoun gets 50 percent, he [could] get six people."

But Bou Habib noted that even if Aoun's list averages more than 50 percent, each of his candidates might not.

In 2005 Aoun received around 70 percent of the Christian vote, a figure that many analysts are predicting to drop. But his popularity in Baabda stems, in part, from the fact that he was born in the district's Haret Hreik neighborhood, which could help the opposition list.

That list includes only one incumbent candidate, Ali Ammar of Hizbullah. The rest of the list is comprised of Alain Aoun, Najib Gharios and Hikmat Dib for the Maronite seats, Bilal Farhat for the remaining Shiite seat, and Fadi al-Aawar for the Druze seat.

The competing March 14-Independent list includes Salah Honein, Edmond Gharios, Elias Abu Assi, Bassem Sebaa, Salah al-Harakeh as well as Ayman Shouqueir.

Honein and Edmond Gharios are running as independents on the list, and Honein told The Daily Star that the list's strength was rooted in its clear and comprehensive programs.

"We are presenting a multifaceted program that is very clear ... we have confidence in our program and in ourselves," he said.

Honein, a well-known legislative expert and former MP, listed electoral reform and the restoration of legislative and presidential authority as chief goals. He also emphasized the importance of further voter enfranchisement, social security for the elderly and the fight for gender equality as important platforms.

"The most important thing is that we are fighting for state-building and ... development," he said.

In comparison, the opposition's Alain Aoun presented his list as the only choice for change, emphasizing the importance of both a local and national agenda. "We have a complete program of reform, on many levels, and more generally than Baabda ... You have to find a common ground, put forward a national political platform; and this is what we are trying to do," he said. "I think that the people are eager for political change. People are tired of the political class that has ruled the country for the last 18 years."

Due to the FPM's alliance with Hizbullah, critics have said the opposition list is aligned with Syrian and Iranian interests, a potentially damaging accusation in the Christian community. But Aoun said that groups were saying this only because "they could not defend their record in governing the country."

Like many mixed and majority Christian districts, the results for Baabda are difficult to predict. The Maronite contest between Najib and Edmond Gharios has been painted as the district's toughest. Najib Gharios is a medical doctor, and Edmond Gharios is both the son in law of Michel Murr, a Greek Orthodox leader in the Metn, and a former mayor in the Baabda town of Chiah.

Informed sources told The Daily Star that Edmond Gharios' popularity as mayor could give him a slight advantage.

Another interesting contest involves the Druze seat. March 14's Ayman Shouqueir is an incumbent popular in the Christian community and sources suggested that he may get some of the opposition's Christian vote.

There has also been speculation that Hizbullah, after a measured rapprochement with Jumblatt, may hand votes to Shouqueir. But Carnegie's Salem said this was unlikely because the opposition needs parliamentary seats.

Despite Hizbullah's massive confessional popularity, one Shiite seat is also drawing attention. Bassem Sebaa, another majority incumbent, has a large following and cross-confessional popularity in the district.

Salem suggested that he may challenge Bilal Farhat, the lesser known of the Shiite candidates on the opposition list.

Another wrinkle in the Baabda contest is the presence of a third, independent list, that of MP Pierre Dakache (Maronite) and Saad Salim (Shiite).

Although many have written off the two-man list, Dakache, who filled Naim's seat and previously served in Parliament, has a real popularity in the district, thanks to decades of charitable works as a doctor.

"[We are] two independent persons come together between the two powers," Dakache told The Daily Star. "We believe that the only solution to solve this problem is to be moderate, is moderation ... to be attached to the morals and values of the Lebanese people."

Dakache listed his domestic priorities as electoral and education reform, social works, welfare projects and human rights.

Although analysts and polling suggest the opposition could pick up as many as four seats in Baabda, the races, as in 2005, are both tight and pivotal.

"The message that will be sent from Baabda is essential," Honein said.

Copyright The Daily Star 2009.