Tis the season to be jolly, no? It is also that time of year when people worldwide draw up their lists of resolutions for the New Year. If the Arab people had it in their power to effect change in the region, indeed, in their own countries - which they do not - then what might they wish for 2005? The following may well be an accurate guide, taken on a country-by-country basis.
Egypt, the ancient land of the pharaohs, may again be a land of pharaohs if Gamal Mubarrak is anointed to succeed his father, President Hosni Mubarrak, to a de facto throne. Wielding the reins of power in the Arab world's most populous country is something to be earned, not inherited. Gamal, then, if he aspires to such lofty heights, must sweat to earn that position. There is, of course, a message here for a number of other Arab countries. Making Egypt a stable and productive state will, in any case, be at the top of the wish list for this country - something that is by no means assured with elections in Iraq and in Palestine looming early in the new year.
Syria not only has the Iraqi and Palestinian elections to negotiate, but also elections in Lebanon and an ascendant Turkey with which to deal. President Bashar Assad must take a long and serious look at his government's policies and at where these policies are leading his country. The Syrian Baath Party has for long fostered an under-the-table deal with the Syrian mercantile class; one heartfelt wish of the Syrians and their neighbors surely must be that this deal is brought above board and opened up so the real natures of government and commerce in Syria can be acknowledged and can function as they should in a rapidly evolving global economy.
In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abdullah has been moving ahead with change at a faster rate than anticipated - but this rate is still slower than it needs to be. The wish in this department is that, even with respect paid to the Saudi context of gradual evolution, the economy and society must be allowed to loosen up and open more to the world at large. Nobody has said it would be easy. Part of this process should pay particular respect to the Saudi context - to the roots of the modern kingdom, in fact. This concerns a saying of the kingdom's founder, Abdel-Aziz bin Abdel-Rahman al-Saud: "Statecraft and commerce do not mix ..." Many of his sons, and their sons, have abused this formula. A very specific wish in this case, then, is that the sons will, for the sake of essential grassroots legitimacy, change their attitudes and their ways to live in accordance with their patriarch's wisdom.
For Iraq, the wish list resembles a very deep well lost somewhere in a burning desert. But one important linchpin wish comes to mind considering the country's Shiites will probably emerge from next month's elections with the lion's share of governmental responsibility: That they can shoulder this responsibility on behalf of all Iraqis, especially the Sunnis and Kurds. A very special achievement would be if, in the process, a new Iraqi government can institute structural justice for Iraq and set an example for the region.
Iran is already leading the region in many ways, but its conservative members of government need to step back and see the damage being done to Iranian democracy by their bloody-minded approach to thwarting the reform agenda. Through democracy and reform, the Iranian state must reconnect with the Iranian people.
As for Israel, the region's favorite bete noire, Arabs can wish that Jews worldwide will recognize the steps they can and should take to help realize the creation of a Palestinian state. This is the only solution that will bring peace to a seemingly eternally troubled region.
The United States is a de facto Middle Eastern state. The early warning signs of a political tsunami are sounding in Iraq - if Washington succeeds in changing its psychology from one of "security" to one of justice, then Iraq has a chance to succeed, and in its success so may the region be graced.
It's a weighty wish list, but one the region's people deserve to see fulfilled.
© The Daily Star 2004
