Army Commander Michel Suleiman appears likely to fill Lebanon's presidential vacuum once last-minute haggling between the government and opposition is over.
Suleiman, 59, has walked the Lebanese tightrope with skill since becoming army commander in 1998, after Emile Lahoud left that post to become president. The Maronite Christian has been widely praised for assiduously keeping the army on the margins of a political crisis that has polarised society, thereby protecting its unity and bolstering its reputation as Lebanon's only functioning national institution as all others atrophied.
During the mass protests following former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination, when the anti-Syrian movement and Hizbullah took turns taking to the streets, Suleiman kept the army out of the fray. His army in effect protected protesters from both sides, despite Syria's military and political dominance of Lebanon and a temporary Interior Ministry ban on demonstrations.
All sides credit Suleiman with a strong nerve, professionalism and a cool detachment. "He's never given anything personal away and I'm sure that will continue if and when he becomes president," said Timur Goksel, security analyst and former spokesman for the UN border force in southern Lebanon. "I think that's his personality, he keeps his opinions to himself and acts like a very professional and collected person."
But Suleiman's leadership of the army was not without controversy over the past year. His army won huge domestic support when it fought a nearly four-month battle with the Islamist militant group Fatah Al-Islam. The demolition of the Nahr Al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp in which they were sheltered raised few national qualms, and a patriotic fever swept Lebanon. Suleiman's stern expression graced roadside billboards with the words: "At your command".
But the commander incurred the anti-Syrian ruling movement's wrath when he dismissed its claims that Fatah Al-Islam was backed by Syria. "This organisation is not linked to Syrian intelligence, nor is it backed up by official Lebanese circles. It is a branch of Al-Qaeda which had planned to use Lebanon and the Palestinian camps as a safe haven to launch its operations in Lebanon and abroad," Suleiman said. His statement drew fury even though it also implicitly rejected counter- allegations that the Sunni leadership had backed Fatah Al-Islam.
"He had the most credible intelligence service in Lebanon, the army intelligence, and when he says something like that he's not talking off the top of his head, he's saying something that his own professionals are telling him," said Goksel. "At that time, that took guts."
Suleiman was immediately accused of being "pro- Syrian". Analysts agree that he has good contacts with the Syrians, which he has preserved since Damascus pulled out its troops in 2005 after Al-Hariri's assassination. He has maintained Lebanese army training in Syria.
"General Suleiman believes in the ideology of the Lebanese army, which is that Israel is the enemy, and he believes in good relations with the other Arab states, especially Syria," retired General Amin Al-Hteit said.
The 14 March movement also sniped at Suleiman in early 2007, when the army did not intervene to prevent opposition street protests that descended into sectarian clashes.
Goksel said anyone in Suleiman's position would have to have strong relations with Damascus, particularly during Syria's dominance of post-civil war Lebanon. "Professional dealings are one thing, going to bed with Syria is another," he said.
During the Nahr Al-Bared siege, Suleiman also implied that vaunted US support for the army had consisted of "promises and best wishes", rather than the modern equipment Lebanon's weak and poorly equipped army needed to fight the group. "It's as though they are telling us, 'die first and assistance will follow'," he said, without naming Washington. After the battle ended in September, he said the army's guns could go back to pointing in the proper direction -- at Israel.
Such a stance has chimed favourably with Hizbullah, whose victory against Israel last summer he praised. Analysts say there is little doubt that like his predecessor in both jobs, Lahoud, Suleiman has thoroughly absorbed the army's doctrine. "He's not with either team, but sees Hizbullah as an essential part of Lebanon's defence," Hteit said.
Goksel agrees. "Nobody can accuse him of being pro-Hizbullah, he just maintains good relations all around," he said. Suleiman also oversaw the deployment of the Lebanese army across the south following last summer's war. His good relations with Hizbullah lessen the possibility of a damaging internal wrangle over the group's weapons if he is installed at Baabda Palace.
"This guy had a very senior public position and an exposed and touchy one," Goksel said. "If he succeeded in that for so many years, that is experience that no other candidate has."
Suleiman graduated from Lebanon's Military Academy in 1970 and also holds a degree in political and administrative sciences from the Lebanese University. A father of three, he is French-educated but also speaks English.
Lucy Fielder
© Al Ahram Weekly 2007
