14 September 2005

GAZA CITY: The Gaza Strip, one of the most overcrowded places in the world, faces demographic asphyxiation if it remains cut off from the rest of Palestinian territory after the Israeli pullout, experts say.

"Gaza is already suffering from overpopulation and limited land space. Without a link to the West Bank, it won't be able to accommodate one more person," said Khalil Najm, an official in the Palestinian Planning Ministry.

According to official Palestinian statistics, Gaza's population density is 3,457 people per square kilometer, comparable to Singapore. The number of Palestinians living in the narrow sliver of east Mediterranean coast is expected to climb from its current level of 1.3 million to 2.2 million people in 10 years, reaching three million by the year 2025, Najm said.

The fast growth is linked to the high fertility rate, which far outpaces the Middle East average, putting immense pressure on educational, health and housing facilities, not to mention natural resources.

Each married Palestinian woman bears an average of 6.8 children, compared with a 4.4 Middle East average and just 1.6 in industrialized countries.

Experts say population growth in the Palestinian territories - expected to reach 4.52 percent in 2005 - presents serious obstacles for the Gaza Strip.

"Population growth presents enormous challenges in the Palestinian territories and in Gaza in particular, with regard to water resources, infrastructure, education and health," Najm said.

Despite the end of Israeli military rule, the Palestinians insist the Gaza Strip remains occupied as Israel retains control of its land borders, air space and territorial waters, warning it could merely turn into a giant prison.

"We have insisted on the need to open these passages because without it we remain dependent on foreign aid and won't be capable of developing farming and industry or exporting our agricultural products," said Najm.

"This will cause a rise in unemployment and poverty," he added, warning that Gaza's population woes can only be resolved by establishing an independent Palestinian state.

"All that will come of the Israeli pullout is an improvement in freedom of movement," Najm said.

Economic analyst Salah Abdelshafi is more pessimistic. He believes even an independent state in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, where 2.4 million people live, would have a hard time coping with the demands of a growing population.

Citing a study prepared by the U.S.-based research institute the Rand Corporation in April, he said that an independent Palestine would be the second most densely populated country in the Arab world after Bahrain.

If current growth stays steady, the population density could double or even triple in the coming 25 years. "It raises the question - at what point would a Palestinian state with its current water resources, land and infrastructure be able to absorb its inhabitants?" Abdelshafi asked.

He said a Palestine with its 6,000 square kilometers of land would "experience difficulties from the beginning" because of its limited resources.

"Today, each living unit contains 6.4 people on average, which is already a high figure given international norms, and we expect it will be difficult to maintain such a rate with the expected population growth," he said.

The Rand Corporation said the Palestinian territories have 390,000 so-called "living units" and that between 310,000 and 780,000 would have to be built by 2025 to cope with the population growth. - AFP