Its clear that the war in Iraq has gone so sour that the policy-makers in Washington are left scratching their heads in search of the right types of political dividends. The unabated killings of U.S. troops occupying Iraq must eventually feed public scepticism across America as an example of the failure to translate a military victory into a political one.
The decision to promptly show evidence of Washington's latest success in releasing the photographs of Uday and Qusay will eventually become of little relevance to U.S. attempts at capturing the political victory.
In the long run, sceptical opinion across the Arab world in particular and the Islamic world in general is certain to become adverse as the United States is seen as an occupying force, unwilling to bring even the remotest hope of justice through failures, such as the one leading towards a fair settlement to the Palestinian dispute.
If yet another Washington-led peace formula for the Arab-Israeli dispute shows any evidence of the future, it's already clear that little would be done to pacify the anger among the Palestinians at years of Israeli oppression. Moreover, Washington's muscle flexing with Iran, next door to Iraq, may not immediately lead to an open conflict.
But it is certain that the environment surrounding the Middle East region remains tense a consequence of Washington's apparent determination to keep more than a foothold in the area. As a predictable downward slide in Washington's relations with the popular mood across the Middle East remains inevitable, victories such as the capture and/or killing of an individual or individuals, are condemned to quickly fade away without any consequence on the overall political environment.
For the United States, emerging from Iraq with some prospect for remaining politically engaged with the regimes of the region and, more importantly, with the popular mindset, must be driven by a two-fold recognition:
First, celebrating events such as the killings of Uday and Qusay - no matter how significant in military terms, nevertheless carry the danger of failing to translate into political gains. On the contrary, such public display of gruesome images may well work towards hardening mainstream opinion in Iraq and the surrounding region.
The best assurance of finding some relief to the continued killings of U.S. troops must come through Washington taking measures to immerse itself in a credible dialogue with the main players of the Middle East region, in working towards a plan acceptable to all for future troop withdrawal.
In time, military victories must be condemned to be of little consequence to the long-term vision of securing U.S. interests in the region, but political victories must have a better chance of survival.
Second, a long overdue push for a settlement to the Arab-Israeli dispute now shows some signs of coming together. But a political accord to end hostilities must take account of the roadblocks that lie ahead. A U.S. brokered agreement may eventually deliver a Palestinian-Israeli peace formula.
But resistance from pockets of the Palestinian population which has suffered for long is inevitable. The architects of a new peace plan must work towards their goal with the determination to keep on bringing all resources to bear to prevent any of the players walking away from the peace table.
By this time next year, the U.S. presidential election campaign would be well underway. Its possible that in the midst of the heat of the campaign trail, important lobbies, most notably the Jewish one, would be in a position to exert their influence on the main candidates.
The United States and its interests have already suffered much in the shape of growing anti-U.S. anger in the Middle East and the Islamic world and yielding to such electoral pressures will only defeat the long-term goal of peace.
The challenge for the main U.S. presidential candidates would inevitably be to demonstrate their capacity to rise above electoral pressures in embracing a long-term vision best suited to Washington's interests.
In time, the United States has a choice to oversee a transition across the Middle East best suited to its interests. Beyond small victories, such as the one over Uday and Qusay, there must be a willingness to face the long-term challenge of consolidating Washington's ability to work with regimes and interest groups across the Arab world.
So far, Washington's belligerence and the decision to fight a war where the initial pretext of searching for weapons of mass destruction has become all too dubious, has only failed to set the course for a long term future.
The writer is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters. He can be contacted at fbokhari@gulfnews.com
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