Karzai faces the dilemma that he must rely upon support from external players such as the United States, or indeed European countries, to bolster his otherwise precarious position ahead of elections planned for June this year. Even his own security detail is run by US rather than Afghan personnel - a broad indication of the challenge he faces in securing himself against the danger of armed attacks.
While the threat to Karzai emanates from elements such as the Taliban or indeed members of Al Qaida, his foreign partners do not offer any viable alternatives to see Afghanistan through to a relatively stable future. In the midst of such uncertainty, it is not surprising Karzai's call for a larger Nato peace-keeping force is riven with many difficulties.
At the outset, the challenge for Nato is it doesn't have the resources to deploy across vast areas of Afghanistan unless its individual members agree to deploy more troops and equipment. Even an aggressive effort to put together a large military force ahead of the June elections may well be ambitious, as time is just not on the side of either the ruling Afghan regime or its partners from the international community.
Shared by many
Besides, the anger shared by many of Karzai's Afghan foes can simply not be detached from the anger felt across many parts of the Islamic world where bitterness with the US-led western world continues to run high. The effects of mistaken policy choices, such as the war in Iraq, ostensibly for finding the WMDs or the continuation of the Palestinian saga of bloodshed, cannot be detached from the anger across the broader Islamic world.
The idea of broadening Nato's Afghan mission is therefore bound to run into one pitfall after another, with no clear solutions to either oversee calm during election time or find a way of bolstering Karzai's sagging credentials. That many of his fellow citizens have adequate reason to be deeply frustrated with the US-led western world adds to the woes of the Afghan leader.
Promises of helping Afghanistan stand on its own feet are widely seen as no more than broken commitments. Deprivation, following years of devastation in recurring conflict, continues to be prevalent outside the major urban centres.
Other unhelpful developments, such as the increased flow of narcotics from parts of Afghanistan which were curbed under Taliban rule, only add to undermining prospects for stability and peace. The truth is that Afghanistan's traffickers have more resources than the government to bribe officials including senior ones, buy arms to protect their emerging empires and attract some of the many young men who are illiterate and unemployed.
The success of the Afghan mission must not just lie in Nato spreading its military wings wider across the country, but in bolstering its commitment with two other essential undertakings.
On the one hand, the success around efforts to re-build Afghanistan must depend in part on the way in which the country moves towards a long awaited fresh political consensus. It is no surprise that Karzai remains in relative political isolation. Even many members of his own community, the Pashtun tribesmen who make up for almost half of Afghanistan's population, have an axe to grind against the government in Kabul.
Pashtun community members are clearly dismayed over many important political positions in the government in the hands of the non-Pashtuns, including members of factions such as the so-called Northern Alliance. Correcting the political imbalance within Afghanistan's internal political power structure is neither within close reach of Karzai nor necessarily his western partners, including Nato.
Political imbalance
But political imbalance is a powerful reminder of the way in which spreading Nato's military machine or similar initiatives to intensify security across Afghanistan are not necessarily going to help win the hearts and minds of more Afghans.
Speaking of hearts and minds, the other gap in the present military structure in Afghanistan, centering around foreign military forces, must be the clear failure to jump start the country's economic and developmental processes. Indeed, if the loyalty of a wide variety of Afghans who have no ideological reason to oppose the regime in Kabul is to be won, the pace of economic rejuvenation has to be stepped up.
Afghans may be willing to contend with a slow pace of improvement if there was evidence that a turnaround is set to happen. But if there's little evidence of it, frustration with Kabul and Karzai's foreign partners is bound to intensify. Ultimately, the call for players such as Nato to expand its military presence is bound to fail in being an important part of the solution.
Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters. He can be contacted at fbokhari@gulfnews.com
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