(Recasts with new comments, bonds, Serbian outlook) * Slovenian assets fall as PM expected to quit * Fall of government could delay economic reforms * Ukraine crisis still weighs on regional sentiment * Dinar flat, investors optimistic over new Serbian govt By Zoran Radosavljevic and Sandor Peto BUDAPEST, April 28 (Reuters) - Slovenian stocks and bonds plunged on Monday after Prime Minister Alenka Bratusek lost the leadership of the ruling party in a weekend vote, casting doubt over her government's survival. Bratusek will announce on Tuesday whether she plans to stay on as prime minister, but she is widely expected to resign after a congress of her Positive Slovenia party elected Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Jankovic to replace her as leader.ID:nL6N0NH55V Some other Central European assets also eased as the crisis in Ukraine weighed on sentiment in financial markets. Slovenia's main share index.SBITOP was down 4.65 percent by 1025 GMT, after falling more than 5 percent in early trade. Telekom SlovenijaTLSG.LJ and retail company MercatorMELR.LJ both fell almost 7 percent, even though the latter said on Friday that it had reached a deal with its creditors on restructuring its debt, clearing the last hurdle for its takeover by Croatian food and retail concern Agrokor. Slovenian 10-year government bond yieldsSI10YT=RR jumped 24 basis points from Friday to 3.94 percent. "Obviously, the latest political instability is playing a role, but I don't expect anything really dramatic," one bond trader said. With its borrowing needs covered for 2014, the ex-Yugoslav republic looks unlikely to have to resort to outside help even if the government collapses. But its fall could delay planned budget cuts and privatisations aimed at reviving the economy. If Bratusek resigns, Slovenia's President Borut Pahor, political parties and parliamentary members will try to agree a new candidate for prime minister, a process likely to take several weeks and expected to end in failure. Only then can a new election be scheduled. "The prospect of a long period of lame duck administration, damaging the privatisation process and storing up of problems on the fiscal and reform side, will likely mean the challenge for 2015 is now all the greater even at a time when many had considered the outlook to be more rosy," Nomura analyst Peter Attard Montalto said in a note. Slovenia had to pump 3.3 billion euros ($4.6 billion) of its own funds into its troubled banks late last year to avert the need for an international bailout and prevent a market meltdown. It had been the fastest-growing euro zone member in 2007 but was badly hit by the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. SERBIA FORMS GOVERNMENT Ex-Yugoslav states are still struggling to reform state finances, but the region's economies are generally more balanced than many other emerging markets, and prospects of a recovery in growth buoyed their assets in the past several weeks. In the past week, concerns over neighbouring Ukraine's crisis have weighed on asset prices in the region. Stocks in the region rebounded from morning falls by midday on Monday, tracking a rise in Western European equity markets. However, there were persistent concerns about developments in Ukraine, where pro-Moscow rebels in the east showed no sign of curbing their uprising, seizing public buildings in another town, and the United States announced new sanctions against some Russians.ID:nL6N0NK29P Those concerns pushed Hungarian government bond prices lower, with 10-year yields rising 13 basis points to 5.69 percent. The dinarEURRSD= was little changed after Serbia's new cabinet was sworn in on Sunday, with Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic pledging painful economic reforms as expected. Serbia, an ex-Yugoslav state ravaged by wars and political wrangling since 1990, is still struggling to reform its economy and join the European Union. "In my opinion Serbia still has the potential to be the new reform darling of the region, taking the mantle from Romania, but it is so important this time around to secure the anchor of an IMF programme," Timothy Ash of Standard Bank said in a note. Vucic pledged to save 1.5 billion euros a year. To get a needed cash injection the government will sell a stake in state-owned firms such as telecommunications company Telekom Srbija and power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS). "This week we expect the EUR/RSD (the dinar) to continue trading within a narrow range," Hypo Alpe Adria said in a note. "Even though we see upside EUR/RSD risks due to the remaining fiscal uncertainties, global markets' volatility and the private sector's external de-leveraging, there definitely is some optimism over the new government's reform agenda." CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1216 CET ************************** CURRENCIES ************************ Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2014 Czech crownEURCZK= 27.442 27.417 -0.09% -0.40% Hungarian forintEURHUF= 309.280 309.840 +0.18% -3.98% Polish zlotyEURPLN= 4.207 4.205 -0.05% -1.37% Romanian leuEURRON= 4.451 4.447 -0.09% +0.20% Croatian kunaEURHRK= 7.610 7.611 +0.01% +0.10% Serbian dinarEURRSD= 115.620 115.700 +0.07% -0.97% Note: daily change calculated from previous close at 1600 GMT **************************** STOCKS ************************** Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2014 Prague.PX 992.64 992.76 -0.01% +0.58% Budapest.BUX 17585.78 17571.41 +0.08% -4.08% Warsaw.WIG20 2444.55 2429.80 +0.61% +1.67% Bucharest.BETI 6411.75 6417.32 -0.09% -1.02% ***************************** BONDS ************************** Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech Republic spread 2-yearCZ2YT=RR 0.285 +0.031 +10bps +2bps 5-yearCZ5YT=RR 0.896 -0.032 +30bps -4bps 10-yearCZ10YT=RR 1.890 -0.050 +40bps -6bps Hungary 3-yearHU3YT=RR 4.330 +0.030 +407bps +2bps 5-yearHU5YT=RR 4.650 +0.080 +405bps +7bps 10-yearHU10YT=RR 5.690 +0.130 +420bps +12bps Poland 2-yearPL2YT=RR 2.980 -0.020 +280bps -3bps 5-yearPL5YT=RR 3.490 0.000 +289bps -1bps 10-yearPL10YT=RR 4.110 -0.010 +262bps -2bps ******************* FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS ****************** 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank Czech RepCZKFRA PRIBOR= 0.400 0.470 0.500 0.37 HungaryHUFFRA BUBOR= 2.750 2.875 3.010 2.65 PolandPLNFRA WIBOR= 2.750 2.750 2.850 2.72 Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices ************************************************************** (Additional reporting from Ivana Sekularac in Belgrade; Editing by Susan Fenton) ((sandor.peto@thomsonreuters.com)(+36 1 327 4744)(Reuters Messaging: sandor.peto.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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