Observers and activists are alike at loss over the prospects for next May's presidential election. After Mir Hossein Mousavi announced his withdrawal from a potential role as a candidate last month, reformists have become even more pessimistic about being able to find a presidential candidate that the hardline-dominated Guardian Council will not disqualify.
Some in the reform camp were even calling for Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president and head of the Expediency Council, to consider standing. Rafsanjani who served two terms as president from 1989 to 1997 fell out of favour with the reformists over the 2000 Majlis elections.
Early this month, however, former editor of pro-reform daily Asr-e Azadegan Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, ran an op-ed in the like-minded daily Shargh arguing that reformists should support Rafsanjani because of his pragmatic and moderate attitude. Shamsolvaezin was heavily criticised by some other reformists. Yet in comparison to other conservative candidates Rafsanjani was still the most moderate option, or so argued some reformists.
Some conservatives seemed to be as determined to block a Rafsanjani ticket as the majority of reformists were not to support him. In mid October, several conservative Majlis deputies proposed a law that would stop those over 70 years of age from standing in next year's presidential election. This was clearly a move to block the 70-year-old Rafsanjani's comeback.
According to Majlis deputy Reza Talai-Nik: "The current law only states that Iranians over the age of 30 can be a candidate, but does not provide an upper age limit. We would like to correct that." A political activist told Iran Focus that even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had advised Rafsanjani in private not to run for the presidency.
If Rafsanjani indeed decides not to run it might have an impact on other presidential candidates. Mehdi Karroubi, a former reformist Majlis speaker and the general secretary of the leftist Association of Combatant Clerics (ACC), announced earlier that he would run, if Rafsanjani were also to take part.
The non-clerical reformist groups such as the Islamic Iran's Participation Front (IIPF) and the Organisation of Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution (OMIR) had been lobbying leaders of the ACC to convince Karroubi not to run so they could present President Mohammad Khatami's minister of higher education, Mostafa Moin. The moderate, non-clerical Moin will, however, be too vulnerable to the hardliners as he is not an influential and well-connected personality. Besides, his candidature stands a low chance of being ratified by the Guardian Council. Should the reformists sense that Moin would be disqualified and that they have no candidate, they might start capitalising on Rafsanjani as a final choice. As for now, the majority of the reformists vehemently deny any intention of supporting him.
The reformists' gravest handicap is their reluctance to take the risk of boycotting the elections. Should the reformists fail to pass one single candidate through the vetting system of the hardliners, they might opt for Rafsanjani as a "lesser of two evils" choice, given the political slant of the conservatives' candidates.
This line-up consists of Ali Akbar Velayati (conservative, close to the Leader), Ali Larijani (conservative, close to the Supreme Leader), Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (hardliner, obedient to the Leader) and Ahmad Tavakoli (who has an extreme view on political and cultural issues and is in favour of a state-run economy).
© Menas Associates 2004
