By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, April 23 (Reuters) - Timely rains will boost wheat plantings by Australian farmers when the seeding window opens later this week, analysts said, but the threat of an El Nino dry weather system may see production fail to capitalise on the good start to the season.
Prolonged drought across much of the Australian east coast in recent months had fuelled fears that dry soils would prevent planting or curb yields.
Strong Australian wheat production would add pressure on benchmark prices. The Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures
"As we approach Anzac Day, which is typically earmarked as when farmers kick-off their sowing programme, the rains over the last week have gone a long way to topping up sub-soil moisture," said Graydon Chong, senior grains analyst, Rabobank Australia.
Pockets of New South Wales and northern Queensland received the highest rainfall totals in March, adding vital moisture to parched soils, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said.
Australian wheat production was pegged by the chief Australian government commodities forecaster in March at 24.795 million tonnes, down on the 27.795 million tonnes produced in the previous year.
The fall in production comes despite more agricultural land being devoted to growing wheat.
Buoyed by recent bumper production years, Australian farmers are set to devote a three-year high of 13.64 million hectares (3.3 million acres) of land to growing wheat, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences estimated in March.
Exports are seen at 19.1 million tonnes, which would rank Australia as the third largest exporter, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Despite the likely strong start to the Australian 2014-15 wheat season, the fortunes of the country's biggest agricultural commodity remains in the balance with forecasts of a return of an El Nino weather event later this year.
The BOM on Tuesday reaffirmed its warning of an El Nino as early as July, which would likely bring warmer temperatures and less rains across the Australian east coast.
Analysts said that if warmer, drier weather eventuated, Australian wheat exports will likely suffer.
"Of the last 11 El Nino's we have seen since the 1970s, at least eight of those have been associated with wheat yields falling 15 percent below average, and in some incidences, they have fallen much more," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist, Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
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(Editing by Michael Perry)
((colin.packham@thomsonreuters.com)(+61-2 9373 1812)(Reuters Messaging: colin.packham.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: AUSTRALIA WHEAT/
