Apr 15 2012
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Regional stocks are likely to outperform
Sunday, Apr 15, 2012
Abu Dhabi: The region’s stock markets will likely outperform the global markets in the near-term supported by high crude prices and on the back of robust health of the oil exporting countries, say experts.
“The global backdrop will continue to affect the region, but to a lesser extent. The underlying economies are doing very well, supported by high energy prices,” Rami Sidani, Middle East Head of Investments at Schroders, told Gulf News.
“The regional markets will continue to perform well, given the regional and domestic liquidity. The UAE markets have outperformed global markets... the market is up 20 per cent, supported by the strong local economy and high energy prices,” he added.
Gary Dugan, chief investment officer, private banking at Emirates NBD, said in his latest weekly research note that investors remained in a state of flux.
“Equity markets are still trading around their highs but in the absence of a flow of good news there is a fear that there could be some rapid profit-taking. We think the markets will probably hold in. Central banks and policymakers continue to provide reasonable support for the markets even if their support is increasingly just words.
“The flow of economic data recently has been less supportive of the view of a strengthening global economy. However in the coming weeks we believe that investors will draw comfort from data that will show a far more vibrant Chinese economy than was previously feared,” said Dugan.
Dugan said the Dubai debt market continues to surprise investors with its resilience in the face of perceived challenging debt refinancing in 2012.
“Dubai’s recovery story so far has seen many corporate entities meet their obligations or successfully restructure their debts. In recent weeks, DIC has reached a final agreement with its lenders to restructure $2.5 billion worth of liabilities. To date, the company has repaid a 250 million Swiss franc bond on time [July 2011] followed by the repayment of a $500 million bond in February 2012,” he said.
Dugan added: “The good news flow for Dubai stands in sharp contrast to the ongoing problems in the Euro zone. Hence, we have seen a sharp improvement in the standing of Dubai credits in the markets.
“The cost of insuring Dubai debt against default has fallen sharply to less than 350 basis points compared to the peak of 450 bps seen at start of the year. Although there is a temptation to take profits in the bond market we expect further international interest to support the local bond market at current levels,” he added.
By Himendra Mohan Kumar, Staff Reporter
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