As the US and European countries try to exit the coronavirus disease pandemic, their citizens are feeling more divided. Around the world, the pandemic has exacerbated existing trends and challenges, including social and political tensions.

A recent Pew Research Center survey of 17 advanced economies in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region found that a median of 61 percent of people believe that their countries are more divided now than before the pandemic. In each of the North American and European countries included in the survey, a majority of respondents see their country as more divided.

The Pew survey offers potential clues to explain these perceptions. The mitigation measures to slow the pandemic, such as wearing masks and social distancing, are one source of controversy. While a majority in each of the North American and European countries said that their governments’ restrictions were about right or that there should have been more restrictions, substantial minorities in most countries wanted fewer restrictions. The study found that citizens who wanted fewer restrictions were more likely to affiliate with right-wing political parties and were more likely to see their societies as increasingly divided. Similarly, those who perceive their economy as struggling to recover are more likely to see their country as divided.

The survey suggests that Americans feel division most acutely, with 88 percent of respondents saying that their society is more divided now than before the pandemic — more than any other country in the poll. The US was already deeply divided before the pandemic, for multiple reasons, including significant demographic changes, declining trust in institutions, and the increasing affiliation of many media outlets with ideological or political viewpoints. The population has become more sorted, with many Americans choosing to live in communities where most people agree with their political, cultural and religious views. The Trump presidency was already exacerbating these divides when the pandemic hit.

The pandemic put pressure on those fault lines. It was politicized early on, such as with President Donald Trump suggesting that the pandemic would “disappear,” disparaging masks, and criticizing lockdowns. Throughout the pandemic, Democrats have tended to see the crisis as severe and to favor restrictions to curb viral spread, while Republicans were more likely to question the severity of the pandemic and to oppose restrictions. Surveys showed that Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to wear masks. The economic crisis further divided Americans, both by political affiliation and by impact, with lower-paid service workers more affected than the professional class.

In Europe, 66 percent of respondents said that their countries are more divided now than before the pandemic, ranging from 53 percent in Sweden to 83 percent in the Netherlands. As with the US, the pandemic worsened divisions that previously existed. The continent was already struggling to cope with demographic change and declining trust in institutions. In the few years before the pandemic, the traditional centrist parties that governed many European countries since the Second World War had been facing serious challenges from more extreme right and left-wing parties.

The pandemic intensified these challenges. It hit Europe hard, with high infection and death rates. The pandemic demonstrated both the need for European cooperation and the limits of EU institutions. The slow rollout of the EU vaccination program sparked anger. There are deep concerns about the economy in several countries, particularly France and the Southern European nations. Indeed, the economic crisis and flawed pandemic response in France has opened the door for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen to potentially win the next presidential election. While many Europeans say that their governments implemented the right amount of restrictions or should have done more, right-wing Europeans are more likely to say that restrictions went too far; though the political divide over pandemic response is smaller in Europe than in the US.

Brexit had deeply divided the UK before the pandemic, highlighting a profound identity crisis among many British people, renewing tensions in Northern Ireland, and resurrecting the possibility of Scottish independence. However, while 54 percent of British respondents said that their country is more divided than before the pandemic, 42 percent said that it is more united — a smaller gap than in most other countries in the Pew survey. This might reflect the reality that the country was divided at the start, but it also might reflect the high level of support for pandemic restrictions, the successful vaccine program, the overall positive view of the country’s pandemic response, and relative optimism about the economic recovery.

The pandemic worsened tensions in countries outside of North America and Europe too. Places such as Brazil and India, which experienced deep divides before the pandemic, have suffered significantly and in ways that exacerbate social and political differences. In the Pew survey, South Korea and Japan also had large majorities that said their countries have become more divided.

The world is still in a pandemic and political divisions can hamper the response by undermining policymaking and muddying public health messaging. In the longer term, deep divisions could complicate efforts to chart a new course forward after the pandemic. However, societies also need to acknowledge where they have fundamental differences and have honest discussions that can help shape a better future.

Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch

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