The International Monetary Fund (IMF) [link] re-edited its projected FY24 GDP growth for the Philippines to 6.0% due to weakness in household consumption and investment. The IMF started the year projecting a 6.0% GDP growth rate, but revised that projection up to 6.2% in April after what it called 'carryover from a better-than-expected outturn in the last quarter of 2023.' The IMF projects FY25 GDP growth to be 6.2% due to stronger consumer demand, higher investments, and better exports. The IMF has made some assumptions in this projection, namely that 'price inflation will come down faster due to the recently announced lower import tariffs on rice'; the IMF is expecting that policy shift to be implemented before the end of FY24.

MB BOTTOM-LINE: So the confluence of high inflation, expensive debt, and lagging wages haven't been great for consumption? I'm honestly surprised that household consumption has been as good as it is, though I'm sure readers are tired of hearing how my own anecdotal experience has been filled with stories of hardship and suffering. I don't know any family that is living the YOLO life right now; most are playing defense and trying to regain a sense of stability. People are traveling and the blowout parties are back, but I don't have anyone in my orbit setting any Big Hairy Audacious Goals.


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