Saudi real GDP up 3.9% YOY in Q2

Momentum likely to strengthen as oil output increases

Press Release

July 31, 2025

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S&P Global Market Intelligence expects economic momentum to strengthen in the coming months as the kingdom unwinds past oil production cuts and non-oil economic expansion continues in line with Saudi Vision 2030, with real GDP growth reaching 4.8% in full year 2025, up from 2.0% in 2024

Key highlights from the outlook include:

Saudi Arabia’s Q2 headline real GDP growth is largely in line with S&P Global Market Intelligence expectations. We think that economic momentum will strengthen further in the coming quarters, driven by ramped up oil output in line with OPEC+ decisions and continued strong momentum in the non-oil economy.
In our July forecasting round, we penciled in an acceleration of real GDP growth to 4.8% in 2025 from 2.0% in 2024, driven by higher domestic demand and rising real exports. Consumer spending is likely to remain the growth-driving force on the demand side in 2025. Private fixed investment is unlikely to markedly accelerate, while public-sector investment is dampened as the Saudi government seeks to keep the fiscal deficit in check.

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*Please note: This was produced by S&P Global Market Intelligence, not S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

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