After several years of rapid growth, Dubai’s rental housing market is entering a phase of structural transformation. In 2026, the key points will be rising average vacancy rates, downward pressure on rents during the low season, and a gradual shift in demand away from short and mid-term toward long-term rentals and mortgages. This is not a market downturn, but rather a transition toward a more mature and predictable rental environment.

Rates as a New Market Indicator

“According to our forecasts, the average annual vacancy rate in Dubai’s rental market will reach approximately 12% in 2026. However, this figure will vary significantly throughout the year,” said Ilnara Muzafyarova, CEO of Colife.

Peak vacancy is expected in July and September, when rates may climb to 16%, driven by seasonal tenant outflows during the summer months, extreme temperatures, and a traditional slowdown in business activity. The lowest vacancy levels are projected for October and November, at around 5%, as the market enters its most active period for relocations, hiring, and the launch of new corporate contracts.

For investors, this means that property performance in 2026 will depend less on headline annual rental rates and more on the ability to withstand low-season pressure without significant revenue losses.

Pressure on Pricing

The mid-term rental segment is expected to remain under pressure during the summer months of 2026. Colife’s data suggests that average rents in the low season may decline by up to 5% compared to previous years, while high-season rates are likely to remain broadly in line with 2024-2025 levels, with limited upside.

Actual pricing, however, will continue to depend heavily on asset positioning. Luxury properties tend to experience milder corrections, while comfort- and business-class units are more exposed to seasonal volatility.

Ilnara Muzafyarova commented: “Our core tenant base consists of young expatriates in the upper-middle-income segment. Professionals relocating to Dubai for work or business. For this audience, the average annual rent per unit stands at approximately AED 11 900 per month. During the summer period, rents may fall to AED 6 000–7 000, though these declines are typically offset by strong performance between October and April”.

Leasing and Mortgages Gain Ground

One of the defining trends of 2026 is the shift from mid-term rentals toward long-term leases and homeownership. Increasingly, tenants view Dubai not as a temporary base, but as a place for permanent residence.

This trend is particularly evident in districts such as Al Furjan, JVC, and JLT, where in 2025 Ejari-registered long-term contracts delivered higher investor returns than mid-term rentals. The reason is straightforward: mid-term rents dropped sharply during the low season, while annual leases provided stable cash flow and significantly lower vacancy.

For investors, the implication is clear, in residential, non-touristic areas, long-term rentals are emerging as a more predictable and resilient strategy especially over a three to five year investment horizon.

Market Oversupplied

The most vulnerable segment in 2026 is short-term rental accommodation. According to AirDNA, Dubai had approximately 25 000 active short-term listings in 2025, compared to just 9 000 in 2022 a near threefold increase in supply within three years.

While tourist arrivals have continued to grow, demand has not kept pace with the surge in listings. As a result, it is expected further declines in average daily rates, intensified competition among hosts, and higher expectations regarding property quality and management standards.

Tourists to Residents. A Structural Shift in Demand

One of the most significant changes in recent years has been the transformation of tenant behavior. Two to three years ago, many residents treated Dubai as an “on-and-off” destination, leaving during the summer and returning for the high season. By 2026, this pattern has largely faded.

An increasing number of people are settling in Dubai permanently, taking out mortgages, signing long-term leases, and relocating their families. Yesterday’s tourists are becoming long-term residents, making the rental market less dependent on short-term tourism cycles.

A Greater Accessibility

While the prospect of declining rents may concern some landlords, this adjustment also brings important structural benefits to Dubai’s housing market. With the city’s population now approaching 4 million residents, affordability has become a critical factor in sustaining long-term growth.

Dubai has long been perceived as one of the world’s most expensive urban hubs. The moderation of rental prices in 2026 helps rebalance this image by making housing more accessible to skilled professionals, young families, and mid-income expatriates the very groups that fuel economic diversification, innovation, and long-term residency.

More affordable rental options reduce friction for new arrivals, lower relocation costs for employers, and increase retention of talent. This, in turn, supports a more stable tenant base and lowers turnover, benefiting both tenants and long-term investors.

Up

In 2026, Dubai’s rental housing market will no longer be defined by growth at any cost. Instead, it will be shaped by balance, segmentation, and strategic choice of rental format. While high rental rates will persist during peak seasons and in prime locations, investors will need to account for vacancy risk, seasonality, and the evolving structure of demand.

The winners in this new phase will not be those chasing the highest headline rents, but those who can manage income stability across the entire year.