MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to decline on Thursday on the back of a jump in U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicated that rates were likely to remain higher for longer.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.16-83.18 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.0725 in the previous session.
On Wednesday, the rupee came within a whisker of a record low, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to intervene, traders said.
"It would be too much, too optimistic (for dollar long positions) to count on the rupee making a new low after what happened yesterday," a forex trader at a bank said.
"Risks are without any doubt on the upside (on USD/INR), but then there is the RBI."
The U.S. 2-year yield climbed to 5.20% and the 10-year reached 4.45% in Asia trading, the highest since 2006 and 2007, respectively.
The dollar index rose to a six-month high of 105.68 and U.S. equity futures extended losses.
The moves in Asia were in continuation of what happened in the New York session.
The median dot plot in the Fed's summary of economic projections (SEP) showed 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, which is down from 100 bps that officials had projected in June.
Further, 12 policymakers expected one more hike this year while seven projected that rates would remain unchanged.
Projections of U.S. GDP for 2024 were revised up and the unemployment rate projection was revised down.
"The SEP and dot plot together show less anticipation of rate cuts," Societe Generale said in a note. "The economic rationale is upward revisions to GDP and employment."
The Fed statement showed policymakers remain "highly" attentive to risks.
"The message that it is too early to declare victory on inflation was memorialized at this meeting," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.26; onshore one-month forward premium at 9.5 paisa ** USD/INR NSE September futures settled on Wednesday at 83.1225 ** USD/INR September forward premium at 2 paisa ** Dollar index up at 105.64 ** Brent crude futures down 0.8% at $92.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.44% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $89.6 mln worth of Indian shares on Sept. 18
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $24.6 mln worth of Indian bonds on Sept. 18
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)