SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters Breakingviews) - Two things tend to drive U.S. presidential races: the suburbs, and the economy. The 2020 race is shaping up to be different. Moderate voters outside cities may be motivated by more than just the low unemployment rates they enjoy under President Donald Trump.

Suburbs helped propel Trump to victory in 2016. Many had voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but when Hillary Clinton stood as the Democratic candidate in 2016, they turned Republican. The economy gives little cause for change. In July, the United States hit its longest period of GDP growth. The national unemployment rate is at a 50-year low of 3.5%.

But the received wisdom may not hold for a president whose overall approval rating is just 46%. If the 2018 congressional midterm elections and 2019’s state races are a clue, Americans may even take solid growth as a given and consider other issues at the polls. Healthcare, gun control and education were among issues that have helped Democrats local victories.

An example: Several traditionally Republican areas in Kentucky, including Campbell County where the jobless rate in October was at 3%, turned Democrat in November’s gubernatorial race against a Trump-backed rival. Education policy, among other issues, mobilized voters.

More economy-defying suburban results surfaced in 2018’s midterm elections. Democrats won four Republican-held seats in Orange County, California, formerly a bastion of the Grand Old Party. The unemployment rate there was at 2.5% in October. Trump’s extreme policies were blamed for losses in a right-of-center region that has become more ethnically diverse.

Much depends on the Democratic nominee. Polls show a moderate like former Vice President Joe Biden would have a better shot against Trump than a reformist like Elizabeth Warren. Efforts to impeach Trump may backfire with voters outside of cities, who want to focus on policy issues.

That’s why places like Macomb County, Michigan, where the unemployment rate has fallen from 5.6% to 3.7% since Trump took office, are a toss-up in 2020. The area voted for Obama twice, then went for Trump and in 2018 helped elect Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Healthcare costs and crumbling roads were key issues in her race. By the end of 2020, the theory that “it’s the economy, stupid” may look, well, stupid.

 

(Editing by John Foley and Amanda Gomez)

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